Sunrise Consulting (UK) Ltd

Climategate 2.0

2011-12-05T19:40:00.004Z

I thought I should make some brief comments about the latest fiasco in the long and unravelling AGW story. I can't add much to WUWT's excellent coverage (http://wattsupwiththat.com/) so please go there for the latest. Anthony is maintaining an easy-access list of article summaries in one or two main postings, the latest of which is here.

In summary, the latest batch of released emails go deeper into the problems that Climategate 1.0 emails started to uncover. It seems that those in the pro-AGW camp were very well aware of how flaky their so-called science was and were debating the problems between them at great length. And this was many years ago, not just recently. So when you compare what they said to each other in their emails with what they said to the world in the IPCC reports, it's clear that they were, let's say, not being entirely honest with us. And when you think of how much tax governments have raised to spend on "reducing the effects of climate change" on the basis of their stories, you realise how much damage they've done to the world.

Of course the COP17 conference continues in Durban -- I'm in South Africa at present and it's on the news here a lot -- but the reality is that there never was any robust science behind it. The latest batch of emails proves this -- and those pushing for further action must know they are looking increasingly foolish.

A while ago I wrote a post on "the gap". The point being that pro-AGW people used the "fact" that natural climate variation could not account for the total temperature change of the world, and so invoked CO2 to make up the rest. In fact, the world hasn't noticably warmed for over 10 years despite CO2 continuing to increase. In reality there is no "gap". These people are out of a job -- but of course that's a huge motivation to keep on talking up the problem. As with any pressure group (and that's all these AGW "scientists" are), they have a vested interest in keeping their "problem" going. Once it's solved they have to find a new job. So don't expect these pro-AGW people to admit they were wrong any time soon -- their livelihoods depend on you believing they're right. All they want you to do is to keep believing and keep paying the taxes.

Sunday in Cape Town

2011-12-05T19:26:00.003Z

The second in my short series of thoughts about being in Cape Town.

I set off for the meeting just after 9am on Sunday morning. It was where I thought, under a road bridge. Apparently they've rented the room for 30 years. You don't get much road noise but there is also a railway line close by which is noisier!

The meeting's very friendly and informal, about 15 members. We started at 9:30 with a very good Bible Class. After a drink and cake -- apparently the same sister bakes every week -- we had the Breaking of Bread.

On the way back to the hotel I thought I'd drive around a bit. I went up the road past the Table Mountain cablecar and had wonderful views of the mountain and CT -- it was very busy with people parked everywhere and a long queue for the cable car so it's probably worth going early. I then went the other way and up the road to Signal Hill, where again there were wonderful views including of Table Mountain. It was really clear yesterday but I didn't think to take my camera so only have pics taken on my phone :(.

I returned to the hotel, had a rest and then walked into the old town of CT. A lot of it is quite bland but one of the roads I found has lots of interesting old building and wacky shops. I found a nice cafe, da Capo, in Greenmarket Square where I had big prawns and, impala steak which was pretty good. An English girl there was talking away on her phone to all her family. When I spoke to her it turned out that she is working as a nanny in New Zealand but her family runs an NGO, Real Youth, which helps children in a township near CT. So she'd been living in this township for a few weeks. It seems the work the NGO does is very worthwhile.

Walking back towards the hotel I found loads of roads closed and people sitting on the kerbs watching large TV screens. It turned out to be the switch-on of the Christmas lights, which was due at 8pm but the party started about 3:30pm. I found the main stage near the railway station and watched a group rapping and doing amazing breakdancing for a while. I didn't stop to watch the switch-on.

Overall I'd say CT is a fascinating place. There are areas of old buildings and interesting character, and then modern lively places such as the Waterfront. And then just down the coast are the most amazing steep mountains and white sandy beaches. I could imagine it being easy to spend quite a long time around here without getting bored.

Saturday in Cape Town

2011-12-05T19:21:00.002Z

I'm working in South Africa at present, and have been spending the weekend in Cape Town. It's the first time I've been here and I emailed my thoughts to my family. I then thought I could post it here as well, so here goes....

Just thought I'd jot down a few thoughts on today. It's been really good. The sun is hot but it's windy so you don't feel too hot. First I went to Camps Bay, which is full of nice seasidey houses and appartments, as is Clifton to its north. Quite stylish. There's beaches and lots of cafes. I then went back into CT and down the M3, which goes round the east side of Table Mountain, and down towards Muizenberg. I did this to avoid a toll but came back the other way (more later). The road runs alongside some large lakes which look very natural. I then took the Boyes Lane towards Kalkbaai which has stunning views. I then followed the road down to Simon's Town and just past it to Boulders.

At Boulders I parked and went to see the penguins. They're very sweet. You pay to go close to them on boardwalks but you could actually just park in the free car park and see them from there as they're so close. I wouldn't though, because you get closer, can go near the beach and watch them go in and out of the water as well as sit/lie on the beach. I also saw what I think was a mongoose, lots of red-winged starlings and the pair of Oyks -- African Black Oystercatchers. I got some photos of them later but they were a long way away.

Once I left Boulders I went back to Simon's Town. It's very pretty. The main street has lots of old buildings, very colourful. I went into a few shops. After that I went further north up to Kalkbaai to a restaurant I'd been recommended, the Brass Bell. It's right on the sea with views over the harbour. I had lovely fresh fish (yellow tail fillet -- no idea what it is) and creme brulee which was excellent. With a glass of wine it was only R210. I had a wander round there too and found some very interesting little shops. Another fascinating town.

I then headed back but decided to go over to the west side of the peninsula. I cut through Noordhoek then along a wonderful road cut out of the rock, Chapman's Peak Drive, which had amazing views. This wasn't the only part that reminded me of the Amalfi Coast but it was especially good with dramatic steep slopes going straight down to the sea. While the sea on the east side (False Bay) is clear pale blue, the Atlantic coast is deep blue. The toll for that road is R31 so nothing to worry about. I then followed the coast road up through Hout Bay, Llandudno, Bakoven, Camps Bay, Clifton, Bantry Bay and Green Point back to the hotel. Overall I guess I've been out abut 7-8 hours. As you can imagine I took lots of photos.

I didn't go to Cape Point because I thought I'd save it for next time. Apparently it's very dramatic, and next to the Cape of Good Hope -- how could you come here without going there? -- but it's not actually the southernmost point of Africa, which is l'Agulhas.

Tonight I thought I'd head over to the waterfront, which I can see from my window, and have a wander round there. Maybe tomorrow afternoon I'll try the old town centre.

I thought Joburg was an interesting place but this area is amazing. Always the mountains and the sea are around you, and the towns are (mostly) characterful and interesting. In some ways it reminds me of Spain -- Cadiz -- and in others like Amalfi coast. It's certainly better than Joburg. By the way it's a flight of about 800 miles between them, 2 hours in the air, so it's a long way!

Amazon and 3rd party sellers: Buyer beware

2011-05-31T21:28:00.002+01:00

I post this as a service to others who may need the information. Sadly I did not do my homework well enough and am left with a broken item that Amazon will do nothing about.

In December last year I purchased a Panasonic razor from Amazon. In late March the cleaning unit developed a fault which has got worse and worse. It is under 12-month guarantee. Amazon tells me I purchased the razor from a 3rd party. The 3rd party tells me I can get it serviced at any Panasonic repair shop. Panasonic UK tells me it has to go back to the retailer for replacement.

I have been caught out by the small print on the Amazon website. Normally when you purchase something on Amazon it's fulfilled by Amazon. But occasionally the website says, in small writing, "Dispatched from and sold by xxx". To Amazon, that means "it's nothing to do with me, guv". Even though you have no choice of who Amazon chooses to fulfil your purchase, it claims that you have decided to purchase the item from a 3rd party.

When complaining, you get a very friendly email containing a list of useful websites such as National Criminal Intelligence Service, CAB, OFT and UK Serious Fraud Office. But no assistance. Just "Amazon is not involved in individual transactions between buyers and seller".

So my new policy is this. When looking to buy something from Amazon where it is "Dispatched from and sold by xxx", unless I'm certain that Amazon's chosen fulfilment partner is trustworthy and recognised in its own right, I will not buy through Amazon.

Thanks, Amazon. You don't seem to understand. When I purchased from Amazon I believed I was buying from Amazon. Yes, sometimes I can choose to use a 3rd party but on this occasion I didn't have that choice -- I bought from you. You decided to put in the small print that actually I was buying from someone else but it wasn't obvious to me and I had no choice over the 3rd party you chose to use to fulfil my purchase. Yet you treat me as if I actively chose to purchase from a German company I'd never heard of! This is not the way to keep customers coming back. But then I guess Amazon is big enough to lose a few along the way and not care too much.

So I have learned my lesson about Amazon. I hope I can protect others from a similar fate.

Salt bad for you? Seems not

2011-05-07T09:17:00.003+01:00

I've always felt that the strict guidance on salt being bad for you has been at best an overstatement of risk, and more likely just plain wrong. When you think about previous generations who took salt tablets in hot climates, and about Roman soldiers paid partly in salt (salary), it just doesn't seem possible that salt is inherently bad for you.

That's not to say that we should eat massive amounts of salt. Moderation in all things, of course.

But the literature always made it clear:

"with the exception of a minority of patients with high blood pressure, there is no clear proof that eating less salt helps lower blood pressure in the general population" (http://goo.gl/ZxFtc -- reporting by CNN back in 1996)

"Whilst there is little doubt that salt restriction lowers blood pressure in hypertensive patients, there remains some uncertainty whether any effect is seen in normotensives. The effects, if present, are small (reducing systolic pressure by about 2 mmHg) and not clinically useful" (http://goo.gl/XIh2G -- summary of paper "The epidemiology of salt and hypertension" in Clinical Autonomic Research vol 12 no 5, 2002, published by Springer).

A paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) this month (http://goo.gl/h7v78) confirms these statements:

"In this population-based cohort, systolic blood pressure, but not diastolic pressure, changes over time aligned with change in sodium excretion, but this association did not translate into a higher risk of hypertension or CVD complications. Lower sodium excretion was associated with higher CVD mortality."

...or as summarised here in more comprehensible English:

"And, perhaps most interesting of all, the increases in salt and diastolic pressure were not associated with an increase in deaths from cardiovascular disease, such as heart attacks and strokes. Indeed, people with less salt in their urine were more likely to die from cardiovascular causes."

So not only is salt not bad for most people, low-salt diets may actually be harmful!

Now of course the low-salt people -- including governments who are deeply into protecting us from ourselves -- are telling us that this latest study is flawed. Well they would, wouldn't they? But for now, I'll continue to enjoy salt, especially that wonderful Himalayan pink rock salt that just tastes so good :).

But there's a wider perspective here. Science progresses by testing and amending hypotheses. Nothing in science is settled, it's just that some hypotheses stand up to testing better than others. In our post-scientific age, some scientists think their job is to prove their hypotheses, when in fact their job is to try to disprove them. By failing to disprove, they thus strengthen them. The result of this massive misunderstanding is that they create experiments to prove their theories and then only publish papers if they work. This leads to publication bias that gives the impression that hypotheses are stronger than they actually are. This is one of the main issues with climate science: people trying to prove it and then publish their "success", rather than trying to disprove it and publish whatever their results.

So for now we shouldn't worry about our salt intake unless we're in the at-risk group of those who already have high blood pressure. But we should also watch this debate over salt because it's very analogous to the climate change debate as well. We should take the claims of climate activists with a pinch of salt as a result!

Pre-Easter visit

2011-04-25T08:07:00.002+01:00

hello everyone!

We were at Gannets last week. We had such fantastic weather, it could almost have been Summer. We spent time in the garden, which is really sheltered so when there's a wind down on the Coast Road it's still and warm in the garden. It's so peaceful lying in the hammock listening to the birds :). We watched a pair of blue tits flitting to and from the nestbox on the back of the garage, so we're pretty sure there'll be some babies fledging before too long. Do let us know if you see them.

In the house, we had a few jobs to do:

the DVD player was not working well, so we replaced it with a new Sony DVD player. I hope this is easier to use. For now, I've written on the instructions to highlight the differences in how to use it, but we'll get an updated printed version to Gannets as quickly as we can
the amplifier wasn't working either! It turned out to be the power supply. I managed to find a suitable replacement in stock at RS Components and they sent one before we left
the mosaic floor tiles under the basin in the bathroom were in a worse state than ever. So instead of just resticking one or two, I removed a 6x8 patch and replaced them with new tiles. I hope this will last for a bit longer. The problem is that there's a rodding eye under the tiles there so it's a metal surface that's affected by the temperatures of the water than flows under it
I also applied a little clear mastic to the bottom of the new shower screen to try to stop water seeping between it and the first seal. It seems to work, but let us know if not
the garden was in need of tidying. Judith did a great job in the front garden, and we had a massive bonfire in the back. We also trimmed the rear hedge and patched a hole that had appeared on the fence. The new owners of Greenacres (the house at the bottom of the garden) are restoring the house and we expect they'll move on to the garden eventually. We guess they'll want to replace the fence across the whole of the bottom of our garden
we tidied the garage and made sure the bats, balls, spades, etc that are on the shelves are ready for use by our guests.

We also ate at Cookies for the first time! We've been going to Salthouse for years and never eaten there -- it's not easy to get a table -- so we thought we really should :). And it was worth it. Excellent quality food sitting in the sun. And while I'm thinking about it, don't forget that the Old Post Office is now a great delicatessen. The salt marsh beef is especially good, but it does a range of lovely food as well as newspapers, gifts and various essentials. There's no need to drive to Cley or Holt now for most items.

We had another lovely and relaxing time at Gannets, and hope that you, our guests, do too! It really is somewhere that makes us go "ahhhh" when we get there -- relax, unwind, and feel refreshed. Happy Summer!

Africa trip day 10: Conference day 2

2010-09-30T19:38:00.002+01:00

Thanks again to Butterfly for the free wifi at Nairobi airport. Not so quick tonight, but still welcome.

The conference restarted this morning with slightly fewer attendees. Overall the tenor of the conference was quieter and less confrontational. There were more positive mentions of iTSCi and ITRI, and some good discussion.

Over lunch, a meeting of ITRI and the BGR people came to the conclusion that iTSCi was the best solution to meet one of BGR's gaps. This legitimises iTSCi in the eyes of those who previously found it unacceptable, and strengthens the position of the project in the overall landscape. This was a great step forward. All that's required now is funding!

The afternoon saw further attenuation of attendees, but the discussion was positive and confirmed the value of OECD and ICGLR working together. It was agreed that an MOU should be completed for review at the next meeting of foreign minsters in November.

The Kenyan government hosted a reception at the end of the conference, and much discussion continued over drinks. I was given an invitation to speak to the British ambassador to DRC when I'm back home, while having good opportunities to talk to the US and several others ambassadors at the conference. There was plenty of goodwill for IBM being part of the solution. I made some fascinating contacts and have lots of business cards to follow up.

Now the work really starts. There's so much to do both for DRC and Rwanda, and it will be a challenge to meet everyone's deadlines while at the same time ensuring the appropriate contracts are put in place. But this is a good problem to have. We have confirmed the opportunity to make a difference to the lives of tens of thousands of miners and to improve the economy of these countries as a result of greater transparency.

Now I'm on my way home. The flight leaves in 90 minutes and I hope I'll get a good sleep before driving home tomorrow morning. Lots to do, but worthwhile and valuable!

Africa trip day 9: OECD/ICGLR conference day 1, Nairobi

2010-09-29T19:41:00.003+01:00

Where to start? Perhaps with some definitions:

OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. An international organisation dedicated to supporting sustainable economic growth, boosting employment, raising living standards, maintaining financial stability, assisting other countries' economic development and contributing to growth in world trade. Very much an international outlook, with a commercial perspective.

ICGLR: International Conference on the Great Lakes Region. A regional organisation focused on the 11 countries of this area of Africa, dedicated to peace, security, stability and development in the Great Lakes region. A much more localised outlook, with a humanitarian perspective.

The conference has brought together the 2 organisations to consider the responsible supply chain management of conflict minerals. The focus is on DRC, and is the third preparatory meeting leading up the a major conference in November this year.

It soon became apparent that there were conflicting views on the priorities. The ICGLR, apparently led and supported by various NGOs and advocacy groups, supports certification of mines, independent auditing of supply chains, and "transparency" ie. publication of all results.

The OECD, I think supports traceability as the first priority. This befits its more international outlook where the top priority is to prevent a complete shutdown of the DRC mining industry in about 6 months. If it doesn't support this, then only the industry bodies support it: ITRI, the Tantalum equivalent (TIC), EICC and GeSI (sustainability-related trade organisations).

I guess that it's easier to audit paper trails and spring unannounced visits on smelters than it is to get hands dirty implementing a working system that permits manufacturers to prove the origins of their metals. But unless the US government changes its timescales and its requirements, certification in a year or so is not going to meet the needs of industry. That could mean that industry sources its minerals from non-conflict areas of the world; after all DRC only provides about 7% of world tin and tantalum, so it won't be a major issue for them. It would only be a major issue for DRC.

The message seems to be that the ICGLR and NGOs will continue to work on certification. If industry wishes to implement traceability then it can pay for it. This is terribly sad, as the money spent on certification would easily fund the traceability solution that would keep 30% of the mining and mining-dependent population of eastern DRC in work and in business.

There are 3 possible bright spots:

The lady from Ford Motor Co and AIAG is interested in traceability and could help bring the automotive industry into the picture
The potential requirement for the gold mining industry to implement traceability. This could bring them into the picture as well
The guidance from the GB delegation to speak to our ambassador to DRC, Neil Wigan, next week when he's in the UK. The delegation itself wasn't interested but perhaps he will be.

After spending over a week hearing strong endorsements of our approach, seeing how traceability can address the urgent issues and bring greater wealth to the 3 regions of eastern DRC, it's a slap in the face to see ICGLR and others apparently following a relevant but far less urgent approach. If it succeeds in having its approach endorsed then miners in eastern DRC -- plus the rest of the population dependent on them for their own livelihoods -- will become destitute in about 6 months.

So we have an objective now to get people to listen. I wonder what it will take?

Africa trip day 8: Goma to Nairobi

2010-09-28T18:20:00.002+01:00

What a day! Incredible highs and deep frustrations...

We left the hotel in a minibus about 8am. The hotel is about 100m from the Rwanda border so it was quick to reach. There we got off and our passports were stamped to say we'd left DRC. Some parts of DRC are clearly beautiful and so many of the people are excellent, but overall I'm pleased I'm having a break from it.

After that we moved into no-man's land towards the Rwanda border. We had to queue for our passports to be stamped again and our details to be recorded in a massive ledger. We wondered whether these ledgers were ever checked! Then we took our luggage to be rifled. Plastic bags are banned in Rwanda so, more than contraband and illegal immigrants it appears that the border guards are most keenly looking for Sainsburys carriers. Unfortunately my dirty washing, my second pair of shoes and my cereal bars became bagless and scattered round my cases. Not a great advert for Rwanda since we were to be leaving 5 hours later. But rules are rules I guess.

We then set off on a 3-hour drive of a lifetime. The road from Goma to Kigala goes through a national park of the most stupendous mountains and valleys. I thought of the mountains and valleys just off the coast of southern Spain, but these are double and triple the scale. The drops are thousands of feet. The mountains include extinct volcanoes (the live one is on the DRC side of lake Kivu). And everywhere the valleys are cultivated and the valley sides are terraced. Rice, tea, legumes, sweetcorn and other crops were abundant, with goats and cows plentiful as well. Everywhere people were working, either building or farming or repairing or generally being busy. The scene was quite different to other parts of Africa where people sit by the side of the road passively "selling" charcoal or fruit. Nobody was passive in Rwanda. It also reminded me of China in the vast scale of cultivation in the valleys and the number of people involved. Just breathtaking! My camera battery was soon flat but no camera could capture the immenseness of the landscape.

Also along this route were areas of western-standard tourist hotels. One gave the game away in terms of what they're there for -- it was called the "Gorillas Volcanoes Hotel". People come here to see both. The walking opportunities must be wonderful! And as the road came closer to Kigali it dropped into the valley bottoms where more cultivation was visible, before again climbing. The average height of Rwanda is over 1 mile above sea level, so I have no idea just how high we were at times today.

We got through Kigali without too much hassle, then checked in for the flight to Nairobi. I had been reading reviews of Kenya Airways last night and was very apprehensive. As it was, check-in was smooth, we took off before the scheduled time and arrived early as well. The onboard meal was adequate and the staff polite and cheerful.

The visa queue took 30 mins to negotiate but the process itself was painless. Collecting our bags from the carousel we then headed to one of the hotel cars that had been reserved for us. The driver said it should take no more than 30 minutes even in the rush hour. Ha! Either he was lying or there was a severe issue in Nairobi today, because it took a full 2 hours to cover 12km. With 4 in the car -- and me in the middle at the back, as is my wont being the smallest most of the time -- it was hot, uncomfortable and very frustrating! However, on the way we did see some huge vulture-like birds roosting in the trees by the roadside. Checking on google I think they were vultures, but some disagreed. By the way, on the road through Rwanda an eagle sawed over the road and landed in the verge. Again checking google I think it was a long-crested eagle. Just amazing! And in our taxi was someone from a gold refiner (attending the OECD conference) who believes gold will be next on the list for traceability; I explained our solution :).

Finally arriving at the Crowne Plaza, chaos reigned. Just 1 poor member of staff was on the reception desk for all the delegates now arriving. It turned out that several of our party as well as other delegates had had their room bookings lost by the hotel, while some bookings had become corrupted (eg. from 2 1-person rooms to 1 2-person room). Some people had to go to other hotels. Fortunately my Holiday Inn loyalty card not only got me the room I'd booked, but also an upgrade to a suite. I am now occupying a suite with a floor area not far off the area of my house, with 2 bathrooms, 2 TVs, I don't know how many telephones, and finally enough space to empty my suitcases and have a good sort-out! I've just had room service, because I don't know where to go and the food here in the hotel is cheaper than in either Rwanda or DRC!

The conference starts at 9am tomorrow, with registration from 8am. Time for a good night's sleep.

Africa trip day 7: Meetings in Goma

2010-09-28T05:11:00.002+01:00

We were up early to go to see the regional Governor, but he had arranged other meetings. We hoped that these were to do with our trip. Instead, we went first to a comptoir. This one was pretty well organised, but the cleanliness indicated a lack of activity. It too was of course hit by the mining suspension. Fortunately it had another branch in a region unaffected by the suspension and was able to continue trading from there, but not all comptoirs are so fortunate.

From there we went to another hotel for meetings and lunch. The Nyima had a lovely garden and we ate on the covered terrace. The buffet food was again tepid/cold so I was careful what I ate, but I didn't suffer major ill effects. The cappucino and the fruit smoothie were excellent.

One of the meetings at the Nyima was with a representative of an advocacy NGO. This NGO has been critical of some efforts to remove conflict minerals from the chain in the past, mainly because it has perceived a lack of care for the people involved. The discussion today indicated that it now understood our project and was seeking to come onboard. The representative later attended the Comite de Pilotage meeting and spoke positively. It's good when these things happen. One cause of the earlier misunderstandings was probably that our project had not fully commenced in North Kivu (where the NGO has an office) before the suspension was announced, so it had not had chance to see the tagging in action.

After lunch, one group went to meet the Governor and regional minister of mines while the rest of us attended the Comite meeting. Both meetings went well. Some positive things came out of the Governor meeting. The Comite meeting first covered the project status and then discussed the impact of the suspension. I was able to make some points on behalf of the team members not present regarding progress in South Kivu that indicated positive results.

Further meetings and discussions were held amongst the team members as we came to the end of this part of our trip. It has been good to see how the various team members have come together around the project and are committed to it. I'm impressed with the commitment of the supply chain generally to support the project's efforts. It's a powerful coalition of industry forces that should be recognised.

After a light meal I went to bed early. Sadly the room next to mine was again occupied by someone either deaf or oblivious, as the TV blared loudly until after midnight. This time it did keep me awake.

This part of the trip has been as successful as the last. North Kivu has a larger mining industry than South, and the parties are very well organised. The various government organisations are working together and voicing the same opinions as in South Kivu. This common voice to national government bodes well for the future of the industry. And it's been a pleasure staying in the Ihusi hotel after some of the others we've been in.

Tomorrow we head across the border back to Kigali, Rwanda and then fly to Nairobi for the OECD meeting. We drive to Kigali so it will be interesting to see the scenery outside of the towns.

Africa trip day 6: to Goma

2010-09-26T22:23:00.002+01:00

We were up early and onboard the boat before 7am. First we had to queue for our luggage to be weighed. We were officially allowed only 10kg of "hold" luggage but if there was an extra charge I've not seen it yet. The boat held about 40-50 people and was hot inside. People were allowed on the for'ard deck in 2s but I didn't really feel up to it. The trip from Bukavu to Goma took just under 3 hours.

Arriving in Goma, we were driven to the Ihusi hotel and checked in. My room is spacious, with an ensuite plus a sitting room/kitchen area in addition. The hotel has largish grounds including a swimming pool, tennis court, several bars and restaurants, and is right next to the lake.

While most people got lunch, I spent a while on emails and then went to bed for an hour. After this I felt better. At 3pm we started a preparation meeting for the OECD conference in Nairobi on Wednesday-Thursday this week. It turns out that at least 2 of the party have been allocated either speaker or chair slots on the agenda without them being asked or told. We spent some time reviewing the draft documents and identifying changes we'd like to see based on our knowledge of the mining industry and the area.

After that, we went for a short drive around Goma down to the area which is still basically a lava field following the eruption of the Nyiragongo volcano in 2002. This volcano is only a few km from the town and covered about 1/3 of it then. People are now recolonising the lava and are using it to build houses and dividing walls, though hardly anything grows. It was ultimately rather sad to see a typical African streetscene reproduced on a lava flow. However, heading into that area of town did give us the chance to see the volcano smoking before it got too dark.

We drove from there to the Cap Kivu hotel for our evening meal. We were joined by the local senator and the deputy head of the local comptoirs. We learned about the effects of the mining suspension in North Kivu -- the same as in South Kivu -- and about their meetings with the regional mining minister last week. We were also able to see the volcano glowing, especially during the several powercuts that occurred while we were in the hotel. We ate down by the lake and although it got a bit chilly it was lovely to be by the water's edge in such a beautiful area.

I've learned that lake Kivu is about 1 mile above sea level. Kigali, Rwanda, is about the same. Johannesburg is similar. It seems I've spent the last month living a mile high!

Africa trip day 5: in my room

2010-09-25T14:41:00.003+01:00

I knew there was a problem last night, though I couldn't work out what it was. Well at 12:30 I found out. 45 minutes in the bathroom and most of my insides seemed to have come out in one direction or the other. Fortunately I had brought some Immodium with me! The toilet in my room doesn't flush properly and I found that the shower doesn't do hot water. I limped back to bed.

3 hours later I was there again. More Immodium.

Fortunately it seems to have done the trick. No more evacuations, but feeling very weak. I have spent the day in my room drifting in and out of sleep. The noise outside is variable, sometimes Congolese music, sometimes guys yelling, sometimes 4x4s rattling past, and sometimes such loud hammering it feels like it's in the room. And the room feels warm but I don't know if that's real or just me. Certainly the sun's shining beautifully through the curtains.

I've just been down to the bar for 4 bottles of water. I need to drink more. Perhaps in a while I'll feel up to showering. I don't feel up to going out tonight. I tried to follow the process for alerting people to my plight but it seems several people in the chain have been to see the gorillas together today and have had their phones off. I really don't think I need to tell Pact's country director I'm ill. I guess when they switch their phones on they'll get my messages.

I'm hoping to feel better tomorrow. We start with a boat trip along the Kivu lake to Goma. That could help. Then it's back into the same types of meetings we've had in Bukavu with the aim of achieving the same aims for North Kivu as we've done for South Kivu.

Africa trip day 4: in and around Bukavu

2010-09-24T20:41:00.002+01:00

Friday. Was it really only Tuesday that I flew out of Heathrow? It could be 4 weeks ago, not 4 days. Today has been another long day, but very profitable.

We had a lie-in this morning. We didn't have to leave the hotel until 8:15. Several people were very unhappy with Hotel la Roche so we all had to move out -- another packing job.

Our first meeting was at the iTSCi office in Bukavu. Very well set up and extremely neat and clean, we had the opportunity to go out on to 2 balconies and take photographs of Bukavu town. It's very hard to know when photography is acceptable here so I've not taken many -- I love to just point and shoot from the car and hope 1 in 100 is good -- and so taking photos across the rooftops to the hills was great.

The first meeting was with the iTSCi project team in DRC to review progress. This generated lots of discussion from the industry members of the party that had not heard so much about the project background. Some useful statistics indicated that tagging is well underway at both mines and negociants.

Our next meeting was with 5 comptoirs and negociants. Their perspectives on the project and the current mining suspension were very valuable. It was especially interesting to hear of the costs of doing business in DRC.

We went back to la Roche to check out and pick up baggage, then drove to our new hotel. I'm still not sure of the name of it but it's built with a concrete spaceframe infilled with brick, designed to look old (and pretty unlevel inside) but it can't be very old. There we got our rooms and had lunch. No lake view here, but it's cleaner than la Roche and on balance it's better.

After lunch we went back to la Roche to use its meeting room for a meeting of the Comite de Pilotage, the iTSCi's steering committee. The presence of the foreign "delegation" drove a very high attendance and the regional Minister of Mines co-chaired the meeting. There was much discussion of the suspension, what various interested parties would like to see in place as part of the project (new roads, better conditions for families, etc), and fortunately about the progress of the project itself. The Minister took some thoughts away and we hope that the message about mining partially funding the project will help him to obtain a waiver on the suspension for participating mines.

The CdP meeting ran for around 3 hours. We were pleased to escape back to the Co-Co for a meal. I and another of the team exited early to get a quiet evening and a good night's sleep. Several people go to see gorillas tomorrow, while others are flying to see a goldmine. I'm doing neither so hope to get some emails processed.

Day 3: travel to DRC and a day in Bukavu

2010-09-23T21:21:00.000+01:00

Up early to get a taxi at 6:30 to the airport. The boarding card for the 8am flight said to board from 8:30, but we actually took off before 8am in typical African fashion -- when everyone's there why wait?

The flight was just 30 minutes to Kamembe, a small airstrip close to a very pretty town on Lake Kivu. On arrival, we were met by several cars and members of the iTSCi project team from DRC. We drove through the town to the border and passed out of Rwanda very quickly. One of the team then took all our passports and took them together to the DRC border control on our behalf. It helped that the deputy Regional Minister of Mines was there to meet us and smooth our way.

So we got into DRC much quicker and more easily than everyone expected. We were then taken to the UN compound for a security briefing. This wasn't really much help, and actually emphasised how the UN rules were in place to protect UN staff. Following that, we went to our hotel. We were all registered for a nice hotel but a delegation of EU ambassadors had hijacked it so we went to the Hotel la Roche instead. Down on the lake but very much past its peak, it wasn't very welcoming. My allocated room was small and dirty but I managed to get a transfer to a larger one -- not much cleaner but at least it had towels and some hangers in the wardrobe. And the water works.

Overall, Bukavu has some very impressive houses and its setting on hills stretching down to the lakeside is beautiful. But many buildings are crumbling and its roads are attrocious. Not a tourist destination.

After a short meeting of introduction in the hotel we headed off to the office of the Regional Minister of Mines. As is normal in these parts, we introduced ourselves and the iTSCi project, put our case, made subtle suggestions for what the government could do about the ban, and listened to his thoughts. He gave us his support.

We then went to see the vice-Governor of South Kivu. We had a while to wait in his comfy conference room because he didn't want to talk to us without the minister being there. He then proceeded to give us his wishlist of things to be put right. Only after an hour or so of (translated) discussion did some of the team finally manage to get his support in an ofline discussion.

Despite the first hotel kicking us out, we went there for a belated lunch. It was pretty good. I had steak and rice and the steak was very tasty if not tender -- not unusual here. We then went to see a comptoir within Bukavu, finding it very quiet due to the mining ban.

After a quick stay in the hotel, we went to the house of a local businessman who had offered to host us for a meal. He was an extremely good host and we had a good Indian-inspired meal.

Then it was back to the hotel for the first night's sleep of the trip where we will be able to stay in bed beyond 6am -- luxury!

Africa day 1, end, and day 2 -- mines and processors

2010-09-22T16:36:00.002+01:00

Sitting in Nairobi airport just before 22:00, I decided to ask the Kenya Airline staff at a different gate which gate would be for Kigali. They told me it would be that one and that it was now open. I tried to ignore the fact that the display said "Paris" and went through. Fortunately it worked out ok...

Arriving in Kigali, the driver from the hotel picked me up and took me to the Serena. We arrived at 01:20 local time, and not the 02:10 advertised time. Clearly 02:10 is the Nairobi time but Rwanda is 1 hour behind Nairobi. So At present I'm just 1 hour ahead of UK time.

Unpacking a little, I finally got to bed about 02:30 and didn't sleep much until it was time to get up at 6am.

Day 2, Wednesday

I have seen and learnt a lot today. The first thing I learnt is that Rwanda is not a poor country. Incomes for skilled workers are high, several thousand dollars per month. To rent a nice house costs $2500/month. This is not Tanzania, not even Ghana. Apparently the Rwandan president has said he wants Rwanda to be the Switzerland of East Africa. People talk about Ghana as being "Africa for beginners" and I would say Rwanda also qualifies for that description, based on what I've seen and learnt today.

I have also seen how beautiful it is. The first place we went was up in the mountains above Kigali. The landscape reminded me of mountainous Spain, with cultivation in the valleys and terracing up the hillsides. But here we were 2000m above sea level. There are numerous vultures and eagles plus other birds of prey, and beautiful sparrow-sized birds with bright blue breasts. And bright yellow birds. Unfortunately I have no idea what they are.

We visited a tin mine not far from Kigali. This is a great success story. Refurbishing a disused Belgian mine, it now employs 3000 miners and has a very paternalistic approach to employee care. With big plans for further growth, it demonstrates what can be done here. We actually got taken about 1km into the working mine, seeing miners at work digging tin ore out of the rock.

After lunch, we visited a tin ore buyer/processor. An excellently run operation, it is very careful not to purchase any non-ethically mined ore. It requires its suppliers to agree to strict terms about this.

Throughout the day we discussed the new US law on ethical minerals and the ITRI tracking project. We also discussed how different we should expect DRC to be tomorrow.

Tonight we have a meal together to plan the next part of the trip. It should prove to be a stimulating discussion.

Africa trip day 1: almost complete -- arrived in Nairobi

2010-09-21T19:38:00.002+01:00

The flight from LHR to Nairobi was uneventful. Unfortunately it was quite cloudy for much of the way so I didn't get chance to see much, though it did clear pretty much over the Sahara. ITRI, which is paying for my trip, kindly booked me in to BA World Traveller Plus, which is a great improvement on World Traveller. Only 1 seat fewer across the plane, but this gives bigger seats and they give you more legroom as well. The same food as economy but more space -- a good compromise that I will look into again in future.

My hold bag was checked through to Kigali, Rwanda, from LHR. I also managed to check in to the Nairobi-Kigali flight in LHR as well. Although I've confirmed it several times, including at the transfer desk in Nairobi, I will believe it when I see it on the carousel in Kigali. Of course I have a change of clothes in my carry-on bag just in case!

I was amazed to find wifi here in Nairobi airport. And more than that, it's free. So thank you to Butterfly, whoever or whatever you are, for providing it. Very much appreciated.

I've now got 2 hours until the Kigali flight. There's not a lot to do in Nairobi airport so I'm just replicating my work email and will process as much of that as I can while I'm waiting -- and while my battery lasts. I recall previous transits through this airport, including one 2 years ago when I was threatened with arrest for taking photographs. My camera is firmly in my bag! At the end of this trip I'll be spending 2 days in Nairobi at an OECD conference so I'll get to see more of Kenya than just the airport. I'm looking forward to that!

Trip to DRC and Rwanda

2010-09-20T21:30:00.002+01:00

Hello everyone,

I've decided to add a few posts to my blog here while I'm away. So look out for updates!

Peter

A few things to think about

2010-09-03T20:09:00.002+01:00

Hello! Sorry I've been away for so long.

Well actually I tend to record my thoughts -- such as they are -- in Twitter at present. If you're interested you'll find me at twitter.com/Peter_Ward. It's so easy just to add a simple thought in 140 characters that it has become my default place for thinking out loud.

Such a lot has happened recently. There's been further storms over climate change, showing even more than previously that the science has been hijacked by politics. The investigations into "climategate" have predictably been whitewashes. But perhaps there's some good on the horizon, since political parties both here and in the US seem to have become less keen on taking actions over CO2. Yes, they'll keep the taxes of course, and continue to spout green words, but aren't taking any actions. I guess this is the best we can hope for!

What else? Well I've been busy speaking about the "SMS for Life" project. Last week I was in South Africa presenting to IT industry analysts. In the next month or so I have 3 lectures scheduled. It's still attracting a lot of interest, and that's great. Meanwhile, I'm now working on a project in Democratic Republic of Congo and plan to be in DRC, Rwanda and Kenya before the end of this month. I expect DRC and Rwanda will be quite different to Tanzania and Ghana where I've been previously, perhaps more dangerous, but I won't be alone so I'm hopeful we'll all be fine.

Meanwhile, I've been thinking about changing my approach to advertising. After a brief and embarrassing fling with a company claiming to be Google who said they could get me on the front page of Google searches for only £99/month (I'd better not say who it is, but if you get a similar call just put the phone down), I've decided that I need a better page advertising my ebook. In addition, I plan to charge for it. I've given away over 100 copies now, and feedback is 100% positive that it is valuable and helpful. 100% of responses 100% positive! That's too good to give away any more. Look for a new page and new advertising soon!

I think that's enough for now. I hope you all had a good Summer, and that the Autumn gives us some more warmth to enjoy. We could do with it!

A short catch-up courtesy of Strata-Sphere

2010-04-13T09:24:00.002+01:00

Sorry it's again been too long since I posted here. Life's too busy :).

So here's a short resume of AGW stuff that's emerged over the last month or so, courtesy of Strata-Sphere. Rather than create my own summary, let me point you at some of Mr Strata's.

The first is a roundup here.

The second is about the lack of accuracy of thermometers used to measure global temperatures. You'd think that, if we're obsessing about temperature changes in the order of 0.1degC we'd be measuring temperatures to this level of accuracy. We're not. Because the majority of thermometers is use are your normal mercury type that measure +/-0.5degC or so if you're lucky. And then there's the effects of changes to the local environment around the thermometers (change of land use, etc) that skew the readings over the longer term as well. See the information here.

And finally for now from Strata-Sphere, here's his latest post on the way that AGW fanatics are losing ground. I'll believe it when I see it -- the MSM seems to ignore most of the news about AGW weaknesses -- but these quotes are good. It's here.

I hope you're also keeping up with WUWT and Climate Audit? Good :).

Non-linear effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas

2010-03-08T12:47:00.002Z

There's always been arguments about how much impact the rising levels of CO2 theoretically have vs. their actual effects. Climate scientists know that CO2 alone cannot account for the forecast 2-6degC temperature rise by 2100, and posit positive feedback ("forcings") to make up the difference.

But a new post on Watts Up With That, here, shows just what level of forcing is required to achieve the massive temperature rises being prophecied. It's suggested that the forcing is 13x the size of the effect of CO2 alone. That's quite some forcing!

The graphs in this post demonstrate the basic point about energy absorption of CO2 (or of any other molecule). It's non-linear. Add a small amount and it has a large effect. Keep adding and the effect reduces until you reach a point where adding more has no effect. In other words, there is no more energy to be absorbed at the frequencies that CO2 absorbs it. Oddly, this doesn't often figure in discussions but it's well-known to climate scientists.

So I hope that this post on WUWT is of interest and helps clarify the terms of the discussion going forward. As one of the commenters says, it would be good to hear a response to the post from climate scientists so that we can understand their perspective on CO2 saturation. Let's hope it can happen before too long, because surely we can't go on in such a divided and uncooperative way. There's some real science to be done and some facts to be gleaned, if we can get rid of the politics and propaganda that passes for climate science at present.

A list of AGW "-gates" to cut out and keep

2010-02-25T18:02:00.003Z

Just a short post to point to an article in the Orange County Register (what?) listing some of the "-gates" emerging from the AGW mess over the last few months. I'm not sure it's complete, but it's a useful aide memoire for the future.

The site is here: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/-234092--.html. Enjoy!

An illuminating interview on UK Channel 4 news

2010-02-02T19:37:00.002Z

Tonight's C4 news -- often a good source of less-biased reporting than the BBC -- featured an interview with Lord Nigel Lawson and Prof Bob Watson from the UK Government (DEFRA's chief scientific advisor) who is also director of strategic development at the UEA (I think the interview will be available here for the next 7 days). This was after a report on Peter Liss who is standing in for Dr Jones at UEA and who, unsurprisingly, explained that "there is nothing to see here". They also covered "Chinagate" but unconvincingly.

Prof Watson of course stated that the UEA temperature record is consistent with the 2 US ones which are "completely independent" -- ha ha. That's an old line which surely he knew was incorrect? He then stated that "the science is absolutely solid" and that it is just necessary to explain it to us better -- groan. However, he did confirm that the last 10 years' temperature has been essentially flat, even though he claimed that sea levels have been rising (yet again: disproven, as Lord Lawson responded).

The illuminating part of the interview came from a question sent in by a viewer (about 15 minutes into the news broadcast). It asked for proof that the warming of 0.5 degC seen in the 80s and 90s was unequivocally caused by human activities.

Prof Watson responded that all natural sources of variation had been explored and discounted. He said, "We cannot show that it's due to any natural variability.... The only way we can explain that temperature increase is due [sic] to human activity."

In other words, let's assume for a minute that the temperature has increased by 1 degC. All known natural causes have caused, let's say, 0.5 degC of that increase. Therefore the only possible way that the 0.5 degC gap could be filled is the actions of humanity.

Now when you stop and think about that, you start to realise 2 things:

1. the whole basis of AGW is that scientists can't find any other explanation for filling the gap

2. for the AGW alarmists, it is essential that they maintain the world in a position of ignorance over what else might be filling the gap. If knowledge increases and other things are found that are filling the gap, then the role of humanity in temperature change is commensurately reduced.

Imagine your livelihood is funded by the world's belief in AGW. Imagine your professional credibility is based on the idea that the gap cannot be filled in any way other than by AGW. Are you going to be actively seeking other explanations for filling the gap? Instead, aren't you going to be actively resisting anyone and anything that might be able to find things that fill it?

Doesn't that explain, more than anything else, the behaviour that has been uncovered in the Climategate emails and manifest in the subsequent strident protests of innocence from scientists and politicians?

It's not that they can prove AGW. It's simply that it was the best explanation that they had at the time. But now the time's moved on. They no doubt wish it hadn't -- they'd rather nobody found anything that would reduce the gap and therefore reduce their credibility. But we're seeing other things come along, such as the effect of water vapour in the high atmosphere that has been the cause of 1/3 of the global warming. How would you feel if scientists were chipping away at your beloved gap -- the gap that for you can and must only be filled by AGW?

But the gap should be a target for keen research. Anything we can do to show that other things fill the gap will save the world billions of dollars that will be spent attempting to control CO2 emissions. It's in all our interests to see that money spent instead on pressing issues such as malaria eradication and clean water.

The current state of "climate science" is the result of vested interests needing to keep the world believing that there is nothing to fill the gap except our wicked CO2 emissions. Once people start to realise that there is no proof for AGW, and that it's only based on the absence of anything else scientists could think of at the time, then surely the worm really will start to turn.

So I thank the viewer who sent in the question, and Prof Watson who answered it so clearly and self-incriminatingly. I wonder whether he meant to be quite so open as to admit his beliefs were built on nothing more than ignorance?

The rush to find more IPCC errors

2010-02-02T12:04:00.003Z

Following on from my post of earlier this morning, here's another fascinating MSM article from the Wall St Journal. Do read it.

This one focuses on the way that IPCC4 highlighted the possibility of reduced water availability for billions of people without also mentioning that AGW would also increase availability for billions more. The net change could actually be positive, according to the paper that the IPCC quoted, but it only quoted the negative findings.

Worse than that, it missed out the paper's statements that most of the reduction in water availability would actually be caused by factors other than AGW, incuding population growth.

Apparently, the reason that the full, balanced picture was not presented was due to lack of space. This, in a document that runs to almost 3000 pages!

What we seem to be seeing now is that the MSM, having finally woken up to having been duped, is now rushing to find as many holes as possible in the AGW edifice. While this is good, the sad thing is that this is what they should have been doing from the start. Journalists have taken what they've been fed by AGW zealots as gospel and not done the careful investigative work on it that they should have -- that they're paid to.

Of course this is not specific to AGW. Few articles now are much more than regurgitated press releases. But AGW is more important than that and it deserves journalists who can bring their scientific knowledge to bear on this subject. What? They're not even scientists? Then why are they writing on scientific subjects as if they know what they're talking about? Why not just start every article with inverted commas to show that they're simply quoting the press release? That way, it's clear to their readers that they're not adding any value.

So perhaps at last we're seeing some investigative journalism taking place. It's finally acceptable to be a skeptic again. Science may finally be reinstated as the basis of AGW. It's going to be a very interesting year!

Climategate: something very strange is happening

2010-02-02T09:02:00.003Z

Today, Watt's Up With That has a fascinating post on articles in the Guardian and the Independent.

These describe work that Dr Jones (ex-head of CRU at UEA) did with a Chinese scientist that "proved" that there was no UHI effect affecting surface temperature records.

UHI? Urban Heat Island. The fact that it's warmer in cities than in the country, especially at night. Much has been said in the past about GW actually being more about warmer night temperatures than day temperatures increasing, so clearly UHI is of importance.

So Dr Jones "proved" that UHI was a minor amount based on the temperature records in cities in China -- where there was massive creeping urbanisation that would allow us to see UHI effects over a shortish period.

Even at the time, people didn't believe him. But as usual, he got support from "the usual suspects" and was exonerated. Turns out, though, that he had very poor quality data. He claimed that he knew that very few of the 80-odd monitoring stations had been moved during the period of his data, but this turned out not to be true. In fact, it seems that many of them had been moved, and some by large distances (41km in one case, apparently). Therefore, the reliability of the record was low and the conclusions potentially flawed.

Interestingly enough, the story has a further twist. According to WUWT, Dr Jones published another paper in 2007 that came up with the opposite answer to his earlier one. Not surprisingly, it was ignored by the AGW camp. This one showed that the contribution of UHI to the rising global temperature record -- that is, the "anomaly" that "proves" AGW to be true -- is "about 0.1 degC per decade".

Of course, Dr Jones' paper doesn't hype this up. In fact, it tries to downplay the figure by comparing it to the AGW anomaly of "0.81 degC over the period 1951-2004". Take a look at those 2 figures and you're left to think, "0.1, oh, that's just a small percentage of the total 0.81".

But take another look. The period Dr Jones highlights is 53 years. 0.1 degC per decade is 0.53 degC over 53 years. So according to Dr Jones' paper, 0.53 degC out of 0.81 degC of all the warming seen in the period is directly attributable to UHI effects.

Don't rush on. Stop and think.

There are huge issues with the surface temperature record. Thermometers are generally read to an accuracy of 1 degC or 1 degF. Once a day the max and min temperatures are recorded. These are then averaged over a month, with decimal places added to the numbers (note Dr Jones' statement of "0.81" when you can't read a thermometer to even 1 decimal place!) and the main global temperature records (GISS, UEA, etc) use them to generate highly massaged trends. Not just that, but early temperatures are reduced by large amounts (without explanation) to make current temperatures look worse. The net result according to Dr Jones is a 0.81 degC rise in global temperature over a period of 53 years.

Even if we accept his statement of 0.81 degC as being correct -- and I think there's huge evidence to show it's not -- we can still see that 2/3 of the global temperature rise is attributable to the UHI effect.

Where does that leave AGW?

It may be that Dr Jones' 2007 paper on the UHI effect is overstated. He's been wrong before, after all. But it's also worth remembering that the whole AGW "signal" in the temperature record is highly suspect, based as it is on significant and repeated manipulations of the record to make current temperatures look higher by reducing earlier ones.

So let's not allow ourselves to be bullied any more into thinking that "the science is settled". It's not. It never was. Even in the last few days, for example, we've seen that changes in the amount of water vapour high in the atmosphere has been responsible for 1/3 of all global warming in the last 10 years. Add that to the UHI figure and that's got the whole lot covered! Of course all these papers -- and the newspaper articles -- are careful to state that they're not doubting AGW of course. How could they? The authors depend on AGW for their credibility and their liveihoods.

But there's an increasing sense of "cognitive dissonance". Our Climate Secretary Mr Miliband last weekend made a strident effort to show his support for the effects of AGW, even as the evidence of his errors figuratively piled up in the background. It's like Comical Ali speaking during the Iraq invasion: while the bombs were going off behind him he continued to state that there was "nothing to see here". That feels like the situation now with AGW. Our very own Comical Ali, Mr Miliband, needs only to turn around to see what's happening behind him. I wonder when he will?

"Floodgate" time in climate science

2010-01-29T10:01:00.002Z

If you're at all interested in the debates now raging across the AGW world. then you'll know that there's huge activity and one "-gate" after another. Some have suggested we call this "floodgate", which seems strangely appropriate given that one of the fear-inducing warnings of the warmists is massive sea level rises.

Whatever we call it, we're in uncharted territory here. We're seeing the piece-by-piece discrediting of the 4th IPCC report, aka IPCC4. While this is good, I've always been concerned about what might happen when the general population realises that their governments have been hoodwinking them for years. When they realise that the excuse for new taxes, higher taxes, and reduced freedoms is a fraud.

Well of course at present we're not seeing governments admit their errors. There's a huge amount of spin being deployed to try to get people to believe that it's business as usual for AGW. But below the surface, in the internet if not the MSM (and certainly never the BBC!), the truth is out.

One thing's for certain, the AGW debate is not closed and the next few months and years are going to be very interesting!

Some places to track the debates:

1. http://bishophill.squarespace.com/. Real name Andrew Montford, he has now published a book about Climategate called "The Hockey Stick Illusion" that should be well worth a read. His blog is always crisply written and incisive. Even other skeptics go to his blog to get the most well-written summaries of the current state of play

2. http://climateaudit.org/. Never overlook this one. Steve McIntyre is one of the leading skeptics and always worth a read

3. http://wattsupwiththat.com/. Anthony Watts and Steve together deliver all that we need to track what's happening, but sometimes with less clarity than we get from Bishop Hill. I guess it's down to writing in the heat of the moment and with minds full of their latest findings!

4. http://chiefio.wordpress.com/. E M Smith, aka Chiefio, is a polymath who blogs on all sorts of things. His AGW theme is worth monitoring. If you're interested in investing in the stock market he gives the benefits of his experience on this too!

5. http://www.climategate.com/. This is one that's arisen recently. It pulls information from many sources, so is not original research like ClimateAudit or WattsUpWithThat but worth monitoring

6. http://climatedebatedaily.com/. Finally, don't forget the place where you can go to get both pro and anti views displayed together. It's very interesting to note the increasing hysteria of the pro-AGW articles.

Google Chrome and Firefox

2010-01-15T14:28:00.002Z

I've been using Chrome for several months now, and I thought I'd write down a few comparisons with Firefox which was my previous browser. I'd be interested in others' views too!

What's good about Firefox

It's not Microsoft Internet Explorer. That's a great start!
It's quicker than IE
I love the ability to add plug-ins. I really like Cooliris, allowing you to preview pages before you decide whether to go to them or not. Also how it displays pictures in Google Image results just by hovering over them. Brilliant!
Tabbed browsing. I almost forgot. Do you remember life before Firefox introduced this? A million separate IE instances along your taskbar and unable to find the one you wanted?!
Self-updating. So useful to know you've always got the latest version
It saves your open pages and returns to them when you restart
Print preview that allows you to scale the output. Brilliant when you're printing e-tickets that would otherwise be 97 pages long :)

What's not so good about Firefox

If you leave it running for several days, it seems to have memory leaks that end up consuming 1GB of your RAM. Not so nice
See the "good about Chrome" section below...

What's good about Chrome

Seems a bit quicker than Firefox
Opening a new tab keeps it next to the one you opened it from rather than putting it at the end of the row
Opening a new tab doesn't automatically switch to it. I didn't like this at first but now I'm used to opening several links from a page and then switching to them when I'm ready
The address bar doubles as google search. I didn't like this at first but now it's very nice
Incognito!

What's not so good about Chrome

It also seems to have memory leaks
Sometimes it seems to eat up my CPU. Most frequently this is because I have an eBay summary page open but sometimes it's other pages. I hate this bug!
Sometimes I type in a new URL and Chrome won't go to it. It just ignores it. I have to open a new tab instead. I hate this bug too!
I have to drag the star to save the page as a favourite, rather than the tab. I wish it behaved the same as Firefox
I wish it supported Cooliris
Useless print support. This is a basic oversight that really should be fixed
Doesn't update itself.

So my conclusions are:

Forget IE
Use Firefox as a minimum
Try Chrome. You'll probably like it after a short time
Chrome's far from perfect yet. The memory leaks and CPU-hogging are really basic things that should be fixed, similarly the print capabilities of Firefox should be included quickly
I wish Chrome supported plug-ins
I'll continue to use Chrome but yearn for the stability that Firefox now has.

Latest post-climategate revelations: 6 examples of the truth coming out

2009-12-14T12:59:00.003Z

Isn't it interesting that climategate has been a watershed in climate debate? In fact, we're now having some whereas before we weren't. Ignoring Gordon Brown's "flat earth" statement over the weekend, we're actually now seeing that there are 2 sides to the climate argument instead of just one. And there have been so many highlights that I've not been able to keep up.

But I have noticed these, which I think are getting to the heart of the matter -- whether the temperature record itself is dependable.

1. Antarctica temperature figures

This link shows how the 26 of the 27 weather stations in Antarctica are ignored when making up the global temperature dataset. And, not entirely surprisingly, the one weather station that is used is the one showing the highest rise in temperature! Anthony Watts expands the linked study here with photographs showing the location of the weather station. Commenters indicate that the location has changed dramatically over the last 40 years. For one thing, a runway has been cleared out of the snow to support flights not just for scientists visiting this British Antarctic Survey base but also the tourist trade. The ground used to be be ice and snow, but is now black volcanic lava. So it's hardly surprising that this location has seen dramatic rises in temperature -- people, planes, change of ground surface -- and very sad that this is the temperature record chosen by "climate scientists" to represent the temperature of the whole Antarctic continent!

2. Daily Mail article on "hiding the decline"

The article here shows how the climategate issues are now finally reaching the MSM. The Mail can be sensationalist, but the analysis here is carefully done. The "trick" to "hide the decline" was not to hide the decline in actual temperature, but the decline in temperature showed by one of the temperature proxies (tree ring widths). The issue: if the proxy is not tracking actual temperature now, how can it be trusted to be a proxy for temperatures of 1000+ years ago? So the "decline" was hidden by simply removing the part of the graph that declined, and hiding the end of the graph line by covering it in other lines that went in the preferred direction. There are several other points made in the article about the way in which older temperatures are "adjusted" by "climate scientists" -- downwards of course -- to make recent temperatures appear relatively warmer....

3. Adjustments to older temperature data exposed

This is a blog I've not followed before, but judging from this post it's worth keeping track of. Take a look here to see what I mean. This guy has taken data from a couple of files that were released from the CRU to compare raw and "adjusted" data for 2 countries where raw data was made available (you may remember that Prof Phil Jones said they had deleted all raw data, but obviously not!). This work shows that there is no warming visible in Bolivia or Argentina.

4. The snows of Kilimanjaro

I've seen this mountain. It's beautiful. It's also true that it has less snow on it than it used to, according to old photographs. Al Gore has previously used this fact to prove that global warming is affecting the climate in Africa. Now a Dutch scientist has shown that this is not the case. In fact, there is a 11,500-year cycle of wet and dry periods. During the last wet period a lot of snow was deposited. Subsequently, it has disappeared in the dry period which is apparently coming to an end. Others have also shown that deforestation around the mountain has affected the microclimate, further reducing precipitation and therefore snow. The bottom line: reducing snow on Kilimanjaro are not proof of AGW

5. Hockey stick -- latest disproof

The Mann Hockey stick graph has been disproven many times, but here is an article that provides some further disproof. To make the point, the author only uses peer-reviewed figures -- something that the AGW "Team" always throw in the face of those who wish to argue against them. Again, this sort of disproof just makes AGW supporters look silly

6. Temperature adjustments in Australia

Another excellent post by Anthony Watts. Here he asks very penetrating questions about how temperature records are manipulated by "climate scientists". Darwin airport had 5 independent temperature records. They all generally validated each other -- they showed that they were broadly correct. And they showed little if no warming -- possibly even cooling. But when it came to including Darwin airport into the pantheon of approved records, 2 of these were dropped, the other 3 were averaged together and then "adjusted" (with reference to what?) and the result was that they were used to show massive warming!

This is all very interesting, but what does it show? It shows that the validity of the data is now being questioned more than ever before. All the manipulations and adjustments performed by CRU, GISS, etc are now being opening questioned in a way that only a few people were doing previously. And as more questions are asked, more holes are being found. If temperatures are not increasing, then global warming isn't happening. It's quite simple!

We will see how the "climate scientists" respond to these searching questions. For now, I don't see strong responses. I think it will be necessary for them to reveal their raw data and explain rationally what they did to change flat trends into increasing trends. We're waiting to understand why we should believe their figures rather than the raw data.

I think it's very significant that the AGW people opened up a new front this weekend: acidification of the oceans. We're told that this is "worse than AGW". I think this is an example of the AGW people "moving on". Little research has been done on this to date, but that which has seems to indicate a mixed picture in terms of impact on sea creatures. It's certainly worth investigating further, but let's not create another bandwagon this time -- let's approach it scientifically rather than militantly for once!

SMS for Life: press release now available

2009-12-14T12:03:00.002Z

The official press release for the project I'm running in Tanzania, SMS for Life, has now gone live. The link is above, and here.

I've had a couple of interviews already. I think it will go into a lot of news outlets in Africa but hopefully globally as well. Although we can't provide hard number on "number of lives saved" -- we're not counting, even if we could -- the story is strong and demonstrates a real impact.

Climategate and Sean's response to Prof James McCarthy

2009-12-05T17:22:00.002Z

There's a really good post at Watts Up With That today, here.

A Harvard professor, James McCarthy, who used to be part of the IPCC, has written a letter in defence of AGW scientists. A climate scientist "Sean" has published a response. It's an amazing perspective from the "inside" of the AGW camp.

He says things like:

"We have known for years that the Mann hockey stick model was wrong, and we know why it was wrong"
"We have known for years that the Medieval Warm period occurred, where the temperatures were higher than they are now"
"...it was known that the IPCC people were trying to fudge the data to get rid of the MWP..."
"We now know that the models on which the IPCC alarms are based [d]o not do clouds, they do not do the biosphere, they do not explain the Pliocene warming, and they have never predicted anything, ever, correctly."
"...we have known for years that CO2 increases have never in the past 300,000 years caused temperature rise (CO2 rise trails temperature increase). IPCC scientists know this too..."
"We have also known for years that the alleged one degree temperature rise from 1880 vanishes if sites exposed to urban heat islands are not considered."
"We have long known that Jones’s paper dismissing this explanation (Jones, et al. 1990. Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature 347 169- 172) is wrong and potentially fraudulent..."
"Everyone except Briffa knows that the Briffa conclusions are wrong, and why they are wrong..."
"All of this was known before Climategate. What was not known until now was the extent to which Jones and Mann were simply deceiving themselves (which happens often in science) or fraudently attempting to deceive others"
"But the computer code is transparently fraudulent. Here, one finds matrices that add unexplained numbers to recent temperatures and subtract them from older temperatures (these numbers are hard-programmed in), splining observational data to model data, and other smoking guns, all showing that they were doing what was necessary to get the answers that the IPCC wanted, not the answers that the data held. They knew what they were doing, and why they were doing it."

Remember, this is from an AGW insider. It's not a skeptic or "denier" speaking. Do read all of what he says. It's amazing what Climategate is now starting to expose!

Climategate and the MWP

2009-12-04T15:00:00.002Z

Those of you who follow these things will know that MWP = Medieval Warm Period. This was a time, around 1200AD, when the world was warm. This is when Greenland got its name, for example.

You will also know that one of the things that Michael Mann had to achieve -- and did -- with his "hockey stick" was the elimination of the MWP from the records. He also eliminated the Little Ice Age as well -- a period around the 1800s when it was very much colder than it is now.

As soon as the hockey stick was published, in the IPCC report in 2001, scientists all over the world wanted to know what had happened to these things! Especially the MWP. Naturally, as we now know from the CRU emails, pro-AGW researchers didn't want to release their data and it took a while before others could work out what he'd done.

The hockey stick has been proven false, but this doesn't stop the media and politicians continuing to believe and promote it.

So it's refreshing to have this article to refer to:

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/fraudulent-hockey-sticks-and-hidden-data/

It points out very clearly, and from peer-reviewed research (if that means anything to AGW scientists) that the MWP really did exist, and more than that, that the world was hotter then than it is now.

So enjoy reading this article. See what the director of the CRU meant when he said he needed to "hide the decline", and understand why he had to threaten to delete the data rather than release it to scientists who wanted to validate it.

We have to remain open-minded. Climate may be changing and there may be a human element to that. But, as was said on BBC Radio 4's Today programme this morning, we're better off spending money on accommodating any change than trying to prevent it. Especially when we don't even know for sure that we're the cause of any of it! But imagine the horror of a world where the general population realises it's been taken for a ride by politicians. That they've been taxed and their movements restricted in support of a mistake. An honest one, perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless. It will be interesting to see how these things progress.

None of these things should stop us aiming to reduce the level of our pollution and our damage to the world. We hold it in trust from God. But CO2 and pollution are not the same issues. Keep a clear head! Listen to the evidence on both sides, and make up your own minds.

Climategate: Phil Jones "steps aside"

2009-12-02T09:07:00.002Z

Breaking news! It seems that earlier this morning Prof Phil Jones, head of the CRU at the University of East Anglia, decided to "step aside from the director's role during the course of the independent review".

He is obviously maintaining his innocence over the allegations of fraud, misconduct, etc that have been levelled at him. Fair enough. It's very interesting that the BBC continues the line that the emails and code were "stolen" and "taken out of context". Clearly the BBC believes that he is innocent as well, and that AGW is settled.

I hope that the investigation is independent. I would like to see the truth come out. If the words used -- "trick", "hiding the decline", etc -- plus the code that "corrects" for missing warming are proven to be justified and valid then we probably have evidence for AGW. If not, it will be time to go back to the original raw records -- the ones that show no warming in the 20th century, as per those recently unearthed from New Zealand -- and take an honest look at what they're telling us.

Because it's clear at present that the science is anything but "settled". The 2 major temperature series used by the IPCC -- HadCRUT and GISSTEMP -- are linked, ie. not independently gathered or processed. So if the CRU figures are manipulated, it's no good appealing to GISSTEMP.

So the next few weeks will be interesting. Will we finally get to the bottom of this? I hope so, for the sake of truth. Imagine if we could stop focusing on AGW and instead put the billions of dollars saved into providing clean water for the billions who currently don't have it, into providing anti-malaria initiatives, into addressing poverty, into reducing pollution!

These are the urgent issues. Yes, I say that because I'm leading an anti-malaria project at present, SMS for Life, which can reduce real deaths from malaria now, not postulated deaths from AGW later. There are real issues to be tackled in this world, but the ideas of AGW are distracting us from them.

Climategate

2009-12-01T07:19:00.002Z

I've been following the climategate story that's broken in the last couple of weeks. I hope you have too. If not, search for climategate on google (or Bing!) to find out more.

This is a highly important story. If you've not noticed it -- and if you don't follow the important AGW blogs you might not have, because the mainstream media (MSM) have almost ignored it -- then you need a quick primer.

Essentially, around 1000 emails plus data and programs were released from one of the UK's (and the world's) premier AGW research institutes, the Hadley Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. The emails didn't exactly show climate researchers in a good light. In fact, they showed that they were prepared to lie and cheat to keep the pro-AGW story going.

And now, focus is turning to the data and programs. These are if anything even more damning. One very interesting file is a history of comments created by someone called "Harry" (believed to be Dr Ian Harris) who over a period of 3 years tried to reconstruct the public temperature records from the historical data used by the CRU. He failed to show that the public message was supported by the actual temperature records except if he added large numbers of fiddles and fudges. The message he recorded is clear: the public claims of the CRU on climate change are not supported by the data. And it's these public claims that have been relied on by the IPCC to justify massive CO2 reductions, cap-and-trade, etc.

Subsequently, temperature records in New Zealand have been obtained. The unmolested data shows no warming; the "corrected" data naturally does show warming. There is no clarity on why the corrections were applied. It's interesting that a piece on today's BBC R4 Today programme (about 6:40am) covering the replacement of the Australian opposition party's leader with an AGW skeptic had no references to climategate or the NZ temperature record.

Yes, the BBC and other MSM are reporting as little of this as possible. There's a climate conference in Copenhagen in a few days and I guess they don't want to be excluded from the inner sanctum of the AGW high-ups. So it's left to the various blogs to cover the reality of the situation: that the pro-AGW message is either not supported by the data or cannot be proven from the data (not least because the data has been destroyed).

So to keep up with the truth, go to:

...and, for an ongoing non-technical commentary of climategate, Bishop Hill at http://bishophill.squarespace.com/. His early review of the implications of the climategate emails was very useful: http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2009/11/20/climate-cuttings-33.html. But do look at all of his blog entries since this point because they track so much of what's been happening since.

So what has all this got to do with life coaching?

My feeling is this. What we're seeing with these pro-AGW campaigners (aka climate change scientists) is that they're so wedded to their worldview that they can't believe it when the facts contradict them -- so they ignore the facts. They then have to work really hard to prevent others from seeing the facts, for example by ignoring FOI requests or deleting data. They refuse to acknowledge their position, even when found out.

Fundamentally, people cannot change until they want to. I've tried coaching people who don't want to change, and it's a nightmare. It doesn't work. They're happy with how they are.

But if you want to change, then coaching can make the difference between success and failure. It can help you to:

clarify the changes you want to make
identify what's preventing you
make the changes.

So if you're at the point where you know you want to change and need some help to move forward, get in touch! I'm looking forward to hearing from you! 01926 854115 or enquiries@sunriseconsulting.co.uk.

Work in Tanzania: SMS for Life

2009-10-08T18:45:00.002+01:00

I've been very busy this year managing an exciting project in Tanzania. You can read about it here and here, but let me give a personal perspective.

It's fantastic working with a committed multinational, multi-organisational team. We have people from Novartis, IBM and Vodafone plus the Tanzanian Ministry of Health. We have people from UK, Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, USA, South Africa and of course Tanzania. I have always enjoyed multinational projects -- maximising the benefits of the different perspectives -- but I've not had the pleasure of running a project with quite so many companies and organisations involved before.

The effect? Well it's like overlaying one set of differences with another. We all bring both our national and corporate cultures to the work. You should have seen me turn up in suit and tie (British, IBM) to a meeting in Switzerland where T-shirt was the "correct" dress :). Similarly, attire has to be adjusted in Tanzania but don't assume it's sloppy: even in the hottest weather a smart short-sleeved business shirt and suit trousers are the norm. I had already discovered this through my work in Ghana last year, where any assumptions about dress were corrected by observing from photos (thanks Google!) that African politicians always dress in full business attire. Don't assume that standards slip just because it's hot.

The result of the project? stock levels of anti-malaria drugs in health facilities in Tanzania are being monitored weekly by SMS message into a central database. We've started with 1 district, will add 2 more in the next 2 weeks, and then run a pilot for 5 months. Following that, we are optimistic that the benefits will result in a rollout being planning in 2010. And other countries are interested too, both for monitoring anti-malaria drugs and also for other things too. After all, you can report on anything using our solution, from drugs to mosquito nets to Coke bottles.

So I'm hopeful both that there's great opportunities for the SMS for Life solution and also that there's a place for me in its rollout across sub-Saharan Africa. We'll see!

If you need to reach me to arrange coaching over the next 2 weeks, please call me on 07711 058871 rather than emailing me at peter-ward@sunriseconsulting.co.uk. I probably won't be picking up emails but I should be available by phone. After all, a mobile phone signal is the prerequisite for the project to be successful!

until next time

Peter Ward

Project Manager, SMS for Life, Tanzania

Sunrise Consulting (UK) Ltd

Job hunting and preparation for interviews

2009-09-21T15:29:00.002+01:00

As well as my focus on helping IT professionals to get some balance back into their lives, I also like helping them to find new jobs or prepare themselves for the job market.

I've had years of experience of helping people develop their CVs/resumes. I know you can go to many free services for this, but I take a slightly different approach. For me, of course it's about the content but first it's about YOU the person. You see, I tend to find that people undervalue themselves and so don't make the most of their experience. You can rewrite your CV a hundred times but if it hasn't the right content then you're wasting your time.

Instead, I work with you to "tease out" what you've really done and achieved -- things that you might not have thought were relevant, or which you didn't think were so important -- and only after that do we get into rewriting the CV.

This way, we improve both the style and the content of your CV. This is a proven approach!

So if you're seeking a new job and need help preparing, or you're looking around and want to get ready to reach out to new opportunities, come to me. I can help! You will find that you gain not just a new CV but a new sense of confidence and self-assurance as a result of seeing your experience in a more positive light. This is a fantastic start to job-hunting or interview preparation. Come to me. I'm looking forward to your call.

Missing in action?

2009-09-21T15:20:00.002+01:00

Hello everyone!

I should apologise for not posting anything for so long. I have no particular excuse. Yes, I've been very busy but then I know that applies to everyone. So I must just say sorry to anyone who's given up on seeing anything more from me.

I've been getting a lot of interest in my free 3-part paper, "How to Survive and Thrive! at Work". It's great to be able to make this available at no cost. I hope it's been helping people who are perhaps finding work additionally challenging at present. If you're interested, go here to get a copy. I'll be delighted to send it to you.

I said I'd been busy. Well in addition to my normal IBM job, I'm also running a project in Tanzania to improve visibility of anti-malaria drug stocks in health facilities. It's a sad fact that up to 3/4 of health facilities are out of stock of at least 1 type of ACT drug at any one time, and this leads to unavoidable deaths. This project is piloting a simple approach to reducing these "stock outs", and we hope we'll reduce the death count from malaria as a result. It's very satisfying to be leading such a project, but also very time-consuming. I'm about to leave for Tanzania again on Wednesday for 1.5 weeks, and then I'll be there again for 2 weeks in October. Please forgive me if I don't respond immediately to your emails or comments during the next few weeks.

Perhaps you'll also be interested in 1 more thing. As well as my Fellowship of the IET, I've also now been accepted as Fellow of the BCS as well. I'm delighted that the BCS has recognised my exprience in the way that the IET did. I hope this gives you more confidence that I have in-depth experience of the IT industry from almost 26 years working in it. I can use this experience to help you! Don't hesitate to contact me.

Thanks for reading, and I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Peter

1979 downfall of the Callaghan government

2009-03-28T20:35:00.002Z

I'm sitting listening to the debate that took place between Mr Callaghan and Mrs Thatcher that preceded the Labour government losing the vote of no confidence in 1979. The government lost by 1 vote, leading to a general election that Mrs Thatcher won. The rest is history.

The debate is very impressive. It generally consists of analysis rather than soundbites and ad hominem attacks. But most amazing is that the general problems that Mrs Thatcher described then are still in existence now:

too little focus on wealth-creation and too much on wealth-distribution
too much power held at the centre and not enough with normal people
etc

Perhaps the one thing that she referred to in 1979 that isn't true now is that trade unions had too much power and were poor at exercising responsibility. But the topics discussed then really do resonate as we look around us 30 years on. We don't move forward, but go round in circles.

She spoke of the need for people to have more control. There were echoes of what she said a few years later (and very much misquoted): "there's no such thing as society -- there's you and there's me". Her point then, just as true now, is that we are each responsible for providing the structure of society at a local level that leads to social cohesion and national culture. What do we have now but pulling apart, permitted through too much reliance on centralised government control that frees individuals from personal responsibility.

Sadly we don't seem to have the type of political debate now that we had then. But then, we don't have the statesmen and women that we had then. Far more important to them that they get their allowances than serve their country well. Then, we had experienced people who used their experience to serve well; now, we have people with no experience of running anything but a student union, a politician's office or a college staff room.

I'm sure this isn't by chance. Jesus explained that in "the last days" people would find that their "hearts would fail them for fear, and for looking after the things coming on the earth". Shall we look to our leaders for guidance on how to address global problems? Can we rely on them to resolve the financial crisis or the breakdown of society? No. Our leaders are not the ones who will make a difference. But fortunately "God rules in the kingdom of men" and he is leading the world to the point where there is nothing else that can be done except that Jesus return to save mankind from itself.

The recent Archbishop of Canterbury proclamation that God will not intervene to save us from ourselves is wrong: God will intervene. Jesus will return from heaven, "touching down" on the Mount of Olives before making his way into Jerusalem to establish his throne. His kingdom will eventually fill the earth, righting the wrongs of man's misrule and cleansing the earth.

So we need to remember: God is in control of events in the world and is bringing the world to the point where Jesus will return. When? It depends how quickly the world's situation worsens. But we can be sure that at the point where things appear totally hopeless, Jesus will return.

I'm going to be away for 3 weeks without easy access to the internet. I look forward to seeing some comments when I get back!

Brown and King

2009-03-25T08:37:00.003Z

There are lots of articles in the papers today about what Mr King said about Mr Brown's plans for further fiscal stimulus. That's understandable, because what he said was effectively a criticism of what Mr Brown's done so far.

What doesn't seem to be getting as much publicity is what he also said on the inflation measure. It was on Today at about 06:50 this morning, but hasn't made the headlines.

What Mr King said to a Lords committee was that he would have preferred to have continued measuring inflation on the RPI measure rather than the new CPI. Why?

Well CPI doesn't include housing costs. That's why it's not gone down so much recently, and now stands at over 3% because many imports are rising in cost as a result of our currency's 30% decline in recent months.

But RPI does include housing costs. That's why it's down at 0%, reflecting the reduction in interest rates that result in much smaller mortgate payments.

So what's it got to do with Mr King? Well, he said that it would have been much better for the economy if the BoE could have taken housing costs into account when trying to hit the government's inflation targets. He clarified what he meant: interest rates would have been set more appropriately if he had been allowed to manage the economy to a target that included housing costs.

The bottom line: the government's change of inflation target meant that the BoE could not justify raising interest rates to tackle the housing boom. The government effectively ensured that interest rates were too low to prevent the boom, therefore resulting in the bust now.

I can understand why the BBC isn't reporting this. But I don't understand why it's not in the Times or the Telegraph this morning. Perhaps later? But don't overlook this important statement from Mr King: it's a huge indictment of the way the economy has been managed.

How to Survive and Thrive! at Work ebook progress

2009-03-25T08:35:00.001Z

I've been pleased with the response to my ebook, How to Survive and Thrive! at Work. Many people have already asked for a copy, and feedback is positive.

Thanks to those who have asked for a copy and provided comments. Please contact me if you would like your own copy.

More sense about the banking crisis

2009-03-17T09:54:00.002Z

Sadly, we don't get much sense spoken about our current "unprecedented global financial crisis". I included a link to a US open letter in a blog post a few weeks ago. Here's a link to a Telegraph comment which I think is saying much the same thing: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/4996305/We-need-more-risk-and-less-regulation-of-the-financial-sector.html

Sadly. it is reported today that Mr Brown wishes to reduce risk-taking by businesses. He wants to see business leaders rewarded for "hard work" and not risk-taking. Does he think that senior executives sit around all day doing nothing? Does he think that all risk is bad? Success in business is all about taking risks -- sensible, considered risks, but risks nonetheless. Sometimes they lead to failure, but careful risk-taking generally results in more success than failure and so the economy grows.

A country where business leaders don't take risks is one where there is no success. Of course this may reduce failure, though failure relative to other nations' successes will increase (ie. continuing relative economic decline of the UK).

Perhaps, then, this is the key to Gordon's approach: remove failure in the way that schools have removed failure. Rather than fix schools so they reflect the real world, change Britain so it reflects schools' approach to failure.

That probably explains why Brown wants to enforce his views on the rest of the world: we can then eliminate failure globally! There will be no relative economic decline because there will be a global decline. Neat!

Free ebook: How to Survive and Thrive! at Work

2009-03-14T13:29:00.002Z

Hi everyone!

I've been really busy over the last couple of weeks, so I've not done any blogging here.

One thing I've done is to create a new ebook: "How to Survive and Thrive! at Work".

When I first started Sunrise Consulting (UK) Ltd, I ran a seminar on this subject. I've used the same material as the basis for this 35-page ebook, including all my thoughts on each page of the presentation plus a few more additions that I'm sure you'll like.

So if you're struggling to find a good work/life balance, or you're frustrated by the way things are going at work, you need this ebook. In 3 parts I cover:

Part I: What's happening and Why?

Where are we?
Why we are where we are
The impact on our attitude to work
The effects on ourselves

Part II: What can we do to succeed?

Understand the problem
Understand our own personal style and that of others
Understand management drivers
Manage our time effectively
Strengthen our own sense of security
Think positive!

Part III: The results and the future

Feel more alive
Increased creativity
Increased security
Improved relationships
Improved work/life balance
Overall, a wider perspective
Conclusion: Don't just survive, but thrive!

So if you'd like to receive this valuable ebook for free, email me. I'll send you part 1 straight away, followed by parts 2 and 3 over the next couple of weeks.

If you know anyone else who might be interested, get them to email me and I'll do the same for them. Alternatively, you can get them off eBay, item number 330314160585.

So don't forget: you can not just Survive but actually Thrive at Work! It really is possible.

Darwin

2009-02-12T07:20:00.002Z

If you've followed my blog and/or read about me on my website then you'll know that I'm a Christadelphian. I also have a scientific background, having studied genetics for my first degree. So I've always been very interested in the theories of evolution and whether they're compatible with the Bible account of creation.

I believe that God could have created the universe in 6 days 6,000 years ago. I don't know whether he did. Some say that Genesis 1 is a factual account of creation, while others suggest it's a record of God describing creation to Adam in 6 days. Moses seemed to believe that God did indeed create everything in 6 days because in Exodus 20v11 he says so very clearly. The pattern of 6 days' work followed by a day of rest is built into many aspects of Bible practice.

But more importantly, the principle that God created all life rather than it having evolved is a clear Bible teaching. There is no room for evolution in the Bible. If God had wanted to say that he allowed things to evolve then he could have done, but he didn't.

I think it's important to recognise that Darwin's theory of evolution did not try to describe the origin of life, but restricted itself to how that life developed. The title, "on the origin of species" is very accurate -- his focus was on speciation and not the origin of life. Even at the time of Darwin it was still commonly believed that life arose spontaneously ("spontaneous generation"), despite this having been disproved scientifically many years earlier. But in reality the existence of life is a huge issue that Darwin did not cover. That's not a criticism of Darwin, but simply to say that his evolutionary theory does not attempt to explain it.

I'm not saying that evolution doesn't happen. We see it happening around us. But at that level it's a truism and not really a theory. If there is variation within a population, and that variation affects the number of offspring that individuals have, then the presence of the beneficial characteristic will increase in the population. This is what's referred to as "microevolution". What Darwin said was that this process of adaptation was able to explain the development of all different types of organisms that we see around us -- what's known as "macroevolution". Unfortunately that's just not true. It is not able to explain that. Adaptation to the environment is a wonderful capability that is part of all life, but it cannot explain how, for example, a single-celled organism became a multi-celled one, or an ape developed into a human.

There's a very good book written by John Lennox called "God's Undertaker" which addresses the challenges of evolutionary theory, especially as propounded now by Professor Dawkins. It's excellent because it doesn't just argue the religious point, it actually demonstrates how evolution requires the presence of external intelligence in order to work. Even if I didn't believe the Bible, Dr Lennox's arguments would be very persuasive. As I do, I find them highly valuable in supporting my faith. If you're struggling with evolutionary theory and the existence of life, I recommend you give this book a read.

Credit crunch: free markets or regulation?

2009-02-06T10:12:00.005Z

I've just got round to reading this open letter about the causes of the credit crunch:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~shorwitz/open_letter.htm

I found it very illuminating. Yes, it's talking about the US crisis and not the UK one, but the analysis is very interesting. It's long but I recommend you read it. The bit about Fannie and Freddie is highly valuable: the US government effectively forced them to make risky loans to increase home ownership among the poor. Hence the writer's comments about this not being a failure of free markets but a failure of regulation -- both too much and of the wrong type.

He points out that all regulation has unintended consequences. We see this around us all the time. What happened in US was motivated by people trying to do good. Who wouldn't want to see poor people with homes of their own? But the unintended consequence of this is that there is increasing risk of defaulting on payments. Because Fannie and Freddie are government-backed, the taxpayer picks up the bill for those defaults.

Do read the open letter. It's a few months old now but I think provides a clear perspective on the sources of the problems we're now facing. It's not a politically popular perspective, but that doesn't stop it being right. See what you think.

Edited to add: sorry, I should have pointed out that it was Bishop Hill's blog that put me onto it.

Snow and personal responsibility

2009-02-06T08:36:00.003Z

The snow is beautiful here in my village. There was some slush about last night but it's all been covered again this morning and it looks lovely.

Amazingly, my daughter's school is open today. I'm pleased. I was horrified earlier this week to hear Birmingham City Council advise schools to close because of the risks to people trying to get into school.

Yes, if you walk along a snowy pavement you might slip. Is that the fault of the school for being open? You could of course blame the council for not gritting the pavement, but that's a different matter. But the unspoken message from Birmingham seemed to be that opening a school would expose the council to litigation if someone was hurt trying to get to it.

I guess I'm old-fashioned. I still think people have common sense and should be allowed to use it. Only an individual can decide what's right, safe, etc at any point (yes, and that goes for speed limits too!). If the state tries to take over responsibility for determining what's safe then:

it's not going to get it right very often (yes, and that applies to speed limits too....)
it's going to open itself up to litigation when it's wrong.

Madness! Nobody sensible would normally decide that they knew more about what's good for others than the people themselves, and so override their common sense. But that's what's happening. Decisions that are ours are being taken away from us, not explicitly (for one thing, because that would then open the state up to prosecution when the decision was wrong), but silently, bit by bit, without us noticing. The trouble is, because no "remote" decision can ever be right all the time, the decisions must err towards excessive caution. So close the school so that nobody will fall over, set the speed limit on this open dual carriageway to 30 so that nobody will die, stop all smoking in all public places so that nobody could ever breathe someone else's smoke. They're all over-reactions. But totally necessary once you take people's right to decision-making away from them.

Despite all this, one of the cornerstones of coaching is that people are responsible for their own decisions. Nobody can force you to think or to react in a particular way. You are responsible for yourself. Seeking to blame others for their own misfortune is what often leads to them feeling like victims. Life coaching encourages you to break out of victimhood and take control of your life.

Why not do it, now, before the government bans it!

Snow and BT

2009-02-06T08:22:00.002Z

Last month I had real problems with my broadband link. The speed dropped to around 130kbps. There had been some heavy rain and I know from previous occasions that this seems to affect it.

Of course BT claimed there were no problems and it must therefore have been my fault. But some work "down the road" on the day before the BT engineer turned up coincided with the speed returning to around 1.5Mbps, ie. pretty much normal.

Well following this week's snow my broadband speed is back down to 130kbps. Isn't it odd? I've raised another incident with them and we'll see if they again decide to tell me that it's my problem. Meanwhile, it's like sitting in a dark room, with information struggling to get in rather than flooding through an open window. Very frustrating.

Does anyone else have a weather-dependent broadband link?

Salt: bad for you? No!

2009-02-03T16:53:00.004Z

Sometimes I think I follow too many lines of thought. I'm not just an AGW skeptic, I'm also skeptical of a lot of medical guidance we're fed nowadays. Not to mention the way in which drivers are increasingly demonised. Following information on these things takes time!

One blog on medical guidance is Junkfood Science. It has an excellent article here about salt intake.

I've known for a while that there is little proof for salt being dangerous. I'd read that it could perhaps raise blood pressure by a small amount in those who already have high blood pressure, but for most people it has no effect. Junkfood Science has reported on the latest research in Europe and US that shows that, no only has salt intake got no adverse effect, but it actually seems to improve your health as you eat more. Do take a look at this really interesting blog post! The summary simply says:

"Decades of epidemiological evidence simply do not support fears that salt is deadly or that the amounts people naturally eat are associated with harm, or that low-salt diets are associated with improved health or longer life."

The sad thing is that this just demonstrates the appalling state of science now, especially epidemiology. Practitioners of epidemiology used to be very careful not to overstate the results of population-based studies because it's almost impossible to account for all factors going on in people's lives. The usual approach therefore was to ignore any effect of less of than 100% (eg. a doubling of deathrate) because of this. The banning of smoking in public places last year was, I seem to remember, based on a relative risk for secondary smoking of 1.04 (that is, 4%).

So the message from science is that high salt intake is not bad for you, and may even be good. Enjoy your food!

PS. If you're interested in epidemiology more generally, I recommend the book by John Brignell available here.

Recent AGW developments

2009-02-02T14:32:00.002Z

Since I last posted on this topic there have been a number of developments which are interesting to those who keep an open mind on AGW.

1. James Hansen's boss declared himself "embarrassed" at some of the things that his employee said on behalf of NASA. He also indicated that he felt that climate models weren't very good (well he put it stronger than that, actually)
2. Frank Lansner wrote a very interesting article on CO2 and climate. Among other things, it showed that over geological time the current temperatures are not unusual, and indeed if the previous cycles are repeated we could expect temperature to increase by another couple of degrees. Of course, previous cycles have not been driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions so there is no reason to assume that the current one is either. See his whole article for very interesting details on how CO2 levels actually follow temperature, and also that temperatures drop from the peaks while the CO2 levels are still high. How would you explain that if CO2 is the cause of the high temperature?
3. Arctic sea ice is at the same extent as in 1979, according to this article. CO2 has been increasing consistently in the last 30 years and we are told that arctic ice is a major indicator of global warming, so what's happening?

Add to all this, the fact that 2008 continued the downward temperature trend that we've seen since the large el Nino of 1997, and it's becoming harder for AGW proponents to make their case. As always, it's down to numerous bloggers to keep us informed of what's really happening (just as in the recent Israel/Gaza battles where the western media simply regurgitated Palestinian propaganda), so we remain grateful to blogs like climateaudit, watts up with that and the blackboard to keep us informed.

MPs' expenses: Conservative response

2009-02-02T14:27:00.004Z

I've just received a response to my contact with the Conservative party regarding MPs' expenses and the FOI act. As promised, here's the response in full.

Dear Mr Ward,

I am writing on behalf of David Cameron to thank you for your recent e-mail about the public disclosure by MPs of their expenses.

The Government originally intended to exempt Parliament from all Freedom of Information enquiries. We believe this would have prevented people from being able to access a full and transparent picture of how MPs are spending taxpayers’ money and think that the Government’s proposal was completely contrary to the spirit of the Freedom of Information Act.

We therefore opposed the Government’s intention to exempt Parliament from all Freedom of Information enquiries, and we are delighted that after we applied firm pressure Gordon Brown was forced into an embarrassing u-turn that resulted in the withdrawal of these proposals.

The public is rightly concerned with the issue of transparency in politics, and for some time now, we have been calling for changes in the British political system to increase accountability and transparency in politics. That is why, last year, Conservative MPs published a ‘Right to Know’ form providing a detailed breakdown of their allowances. By taking this clear lead, we have pushed the Government into introducing a similar system for all MPs. This would be something carried out by the House of Commons authorities in addition to the new FOI requirements.

To make sure that MPs only spend what they need, we would also stop MPs being able to vote on their own pay and introduce spot checks on their accounts. We are pleased that a system of spot checks will be put in place because no-one will ever take lectures from politicians about responsibility unless we put our own house in order first.

In these ways, and in others, we are setting out sensible, reasonable and solid measures which will lead to greater transparency and greater public confidence in politics in Britain. I assure you, we will continue to oppose any future Government proposals to limit transparency of MPs’ expenses.

Thank you, once again, for taking the trouble to get in touch.

Yours sincerely,

Lara Moreno Perez
Office of the Leader of the Opposition

I was encouraged by the detail in the response. I can see the party-political "embarrassing u-turn" comment but nevertheless the overall thrust seems reasonable.

So, I'm pleased that my question was taken seriously enough to receive a detailed response. I imagine they have been very busy responding to many questions and complaints so congratulations to them on taking the trouble to respond.

MPs' expenses: update

2009-01-24T14:19:00.004Z

Earlier this week I posted some comments here about my email to the conservative party on MPs' expenses. Since then Mr Brown has feigned a U-turn (it seems he has simply postponed the decision to exempt MPs from the FOI act, not actually decided against it as he implied). However, the issue of MPs being able to claim up to £25/day without receipts is still, as far as I can tell, on the table.

So it's very sad that I have had no response as yet to my request to the opposition either to come out against this or to commit to giving us hard-pressed (or should I say "hard-working", as that's the phrase all MPs use without thinking nowadays) businessmen the same right. We all know what HMRC would think if we tried to do the same as MPs want to do for themselves. I can't claim a single mile of business mileage (12p at present) without a VAT receipt for the fuel to back it up. That's not my employer asking for it, it's the government. How MPs think they can retain any credibility while effectively giving themselves a pay increase of £125/week is beyond me.

Diabetes and the "fit 4 life" campaign

2009-01-20T15:22:00.001Z

The always-excellent Junkfood Science blog has a post today about the "fit 4 life" campaign. Apparently it has led to children being bullied because of their weight. How sad. Now I guess "fat kids" have been bullied for ever, but now it seems that the government is happy for this to be so, presumably in a misguided effort to get them to stop eating so much.

The post (here) emphasises that:

type 1 diabetes is genetic, and nothing to do with being fat
type 2 diabetes is ALSO genetic (even more so than type 1).

The sad thing it reports is that young children believe that their eating habits have caused their type 2 diabetes, when it's not possible that this is the case. Yet the government wishes to have people believe that fat children cause their own diabetes....

Why do we put up with this sort of bullying from the government?!

UK Government plans to avoid public scrutiny on expenses

2009-01-19T16:59:00.002Z

Here's a surprise! The Times reports here that, on another good day to bury bad news, MPs will not have to subject themselves to public scrutiny of their expenses. Further, anything less than £25 will not need a receipt.

I've posted this on the Conservative party website. If I get a response I'll post it as a comment.

"Can I assume that you will be voting against the change to the FoI act that will make it legal for MPs to avoid public scrutiny of their expenses? I'm sure you don't need reminding that HMRC requires every penny of my expense claims to be supported by VAT receipts, yet it seems MPs wish to be above this particular law. I trust that Conservatives will be resisting the attempt of the Labour government to push this through? If not, please commit to me NOW that when you get into power you will arrange for HMRC to apply the same leniency to hard-working business people that you wish for yourselves."

I'm not normally one to fire off such comments to political parties, but it does annoy me when I see our MPs -- who have less and less to do as our laws increasingly come from Europe -- pushing for more entitlements. Out here in the real world we're all looking to reduce costs, trim overheads, seek efficiencies, yet this does not seem to be the case in government. Perhaps it's those "green shoots"?

Snooker and our personal development

2009-01-18T23:09:00.002Z

I've been watching the snooker again. Some people find it boring but if you're prepared to focus on the action and get inside the players' heads a little it becomes fascinating. Potting the balls is the least thing on their minds.

So what? Well I was thinking about snooker and its relevance to our own personal development.

Firstly, snooker players must be able to pot the balls. Ideally from any angle and anywhere on the table. So excellence in the mechanics is a given. In our context, we must bring skill to our jobs. That's the admission price. But it's not enough for success -- there's more
Secondly, snooker players must be good at tactics. When to pot and when to play defensive. When to attack and when to defend. Defence may look boring but it's critical to success. For us, we need to decide when we're onto a clear winner and when we need to regroup, replan, take another tack. You can't win every battle but you should know how you're moving forward to win the war
Thirdly, there's the mental game. Excellent skills are hampered by nerves and self-doubt. We can bring the best skills to our jobs but if we let those negative internal voices get to us we fail to perform
Fourthly, there's the realisation that the competitive match is not all the players do. They practice, rehearse, get into form, prepare. They do countless hours of boring practice until they can do the potting stuff in their sleep (and if you're Ronnie, with both hands). It's only this level of preparation that permits them to do the mechanical stuff with excellence. We also need to prepare, so that the stuff we need to have at our fingertips is there when we need it, when the pressure's on. Only then can we free our minds to concentrate on tactics and the internal mental game of positive messages.

So when we're considering our own personal development, let's keep sportsmen such as these in minds. We need to develop excellence at our own "sport", whether it's IT, sales, HR or whatever. This takes hours of practice, generally unseen and often unrecognised by our managers. But it's getting the basics to a level of excellence that then frees us up to succeed when things get tough and we need the tactics and the mental strength to come through. Success doesn't come by accident, and "luck" generally comes to those who have prepared for it.

Why not seek out your own lessons from what you see around you? It can help you to refocus your own efforts on achieving your own success. Ultimately your success is down to you, but coaching can be a great way of helping you to be more successful. It does two things as you push for your goals:

helps you to see things you may have missed and add them to your list of tasks
supports your dedicated drive to achieve your goals through the execution of those tasks.

In addition, if you've not yet got to the point where you have defined your goals then coaching is the perfect tool to help you do that. Give me a call -- your introductory session is at no charge!

The falacy of third-hand smoke

2009-01-18T22:50:00.002Z

I'm not a smoker and I don't recommend that anyone starts smoking. If you are a smoker and you can stop, it may be best to do that if you don't get any spin-off benefits from smoking, such as relaxation. You may laugh at that last comment, but I do know smokers who still positively enjoy smoking because of the "health benefits", and who am I to gainsay that? They may die early, but then we all might.

Some people demonise smokers because of the dangers of "second-hand smoke". The evidence for this is tenuous -- that is, the studies done on it are non-conclusive -- but I do see the point of trying not to smoke where people don't wish to breathe it in. I don't agree with smoking bans where people have a choice of whether to stay there, however. I guess this is because I don't like laws for the sake of laws. Preventing smoking in offices is one thing, but in pubs and clubs it seems better to let people decide for themselves.

However, there' s a limit to the arguments that can be used against smokers. The latest argument, about "third-hand smoke" is a joke. If you don't believe me, take a look at this well-argued article at junkfoodscience:
http://junkfoodscience.blogspot.com/2009/01/third-hand-smoke-and-chemtrails.html

It's part of a plot to further turn society against smokers. Why would they want to do that? I guess it's because control is what excites some people. Control over others' lives on the pretext of it being heathy for the rest of society. And the media are willing accomplices in an effort to gain more attention in the sea of competing messages.

"Live and let live" seems to have died a death. How sad.

BTW, if you're interested in further websites where bad science is highlighted, Number Watch continues its monthly articles (http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/number%20watch.htm) though sadly its author John Brignell is now less spritely than he used to be (I recommend his books as an excellent introduction to the dubious aspects of modern science). I trust everyone is now following Climate Audit (http://www.climateaudit.org/) and Watts Up With That? (http://wattsupwiththat.com/) as other places where bad science is unmasked. There really is far too much politics dressed up as science nowadays. As a science graduate I detest this, plus the way that journalists are unable to analyse the science/maths in the stories to determine what the reality is. Truly we are in a post-scientific age, where science is used only to add false credibility to the stories that activists wish to push at us. It is necessary for each of us to do our own research into the science behind the stories so that we can take appropriate action rather than give in to the clamour of those who wish to tell us what to do.

BT broadband pt2

2009-01-14T14:02:00.002Z

BT indeed claimed that they'd made no changes. However, even though I said I didn't need an engineer to attend I was still visited on Monday afternoon.

He was friendly and not upset that he'd made a wasted visit. He did, however, confirm that BT had been working on a fault "up the road" on Saturday afternoon.

So I'm back to something like normal, or at least what I'm used to in my village. And although BT won't admit it, some work was done by them at a time that seems to be relevant. Whatever, I'm just pleased to have a decent speed again.

Broadband speeds and BT

2009-01-11T19:29:00.002Z

Around the beginning of December my broadband speeds suddenly dropped. I assumed this was due to the increase in internet bargain-hunting and tried to ignore it. It made it difficult to work at times but I thought it would get faster again after Christmas.

Well it didn't. Around New Year I decided to investigate. www.speedtest.net was called into service. I found the horrific download speed of around 125kbps! Upload was actually faster than download! So much for BT's "up to 8Mbps" claim....

I raised a problem on the BT database. However, my broadband is contracted for by my IT industry employer and BT predictably ignored my problem record. Then again, it's possible they would have ignored it anyway.

So I got onto my company helpdesk. They raised a problem with BT. The usual process was followed -- BT couldn't find a problem, asked for proof of the problem, looked again but couldn't find a problem, etc. Finally they agreed to visit me tomorrow.

This morning I ran speedtest again. Amazingly, the speed was 1910kbps download, compared with just 127kbps at 13:00 on Saturday. I'd done nothing in between of course.

What's the betting that BT also claim they made no changes in that 20-hour period? That it's inexplicable and, by inference, my fault? We'll see when I get an update from the helpdesk tomorrow.

"luck"

2009-01-05T08:41:00.002Z

I was amused to read that Tony Blair has owned up to his true feelings about the last 11 years. It was widely recorded at the end of last week:

"It is true that we had 10 years of record growth when I was Prime Minister. I have, unfortunately, come to the conclusion that it was luck."

(See, for example, here for the context).

Of course it was spun later as being "light-hearted", "a joke", etc. But as others have said, many a true word spoken in jest. Not the sort of support that Mr Brown needs at this time!

Harold Ambler blog post at huffingtonpost.com

2009-01-04T15:55:00.002Z

Those who follow my blog will be aware that I'm a sceptic regarding AGW, or "climate change" as it's now referred to since the world stopped warming. There are very many people working away unpaid and unsupported, trying to hold the climate activists to account. I've provided links in previous blog posts if you're interested, but some of the best are Climate Audit and Climate Debate Daily, the latter simply providing links to various articles that allow you to follow both sides of the argument (something that the BBC, for example, doesn't seem to want you to do).

I was very pleased to read this excellent post by Harold Ambler about the science of CC. It summarises a lot of information in a short space and is therefore a valuable overview of CC. Please take a moment to read it and understand the real science.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harold-ambler/mr-gore-apology-accepted_b_154982.html

Boom and bust

2008-12-27T21:30:00.004Z

This is not a political blog, and I'm not an economist. But thinking about what's been happening with the economy it seems to me that people were misled.

For the past 11 years we've been told that there will be "no more return to boom and bust". More than that, we were told that every improvement in the economy had been "locked in" in some way. I think that a result of these messages was that people began to believe that there really would be no more busts and that the economy would simply continue to improve. You can't really blame people for believing what "the best chancellor since WW2" continually told them, can you?

So why not take out a 100% mortgage if your property is going to keep going up in value? Why not take out a credit card loan if your salary will continue to increase? There's no risk, no downside.

Except of course that it's now obvious that the "no more return to boom and bust" was a lie. Nobody, least of all the chancellor in a small country, can abolish boom and bust. It's the way of the world.

Life coaches will tell you that you have to take responsibility for your own actions as part of making change in your life. At present we don't see the prime minister taking responsibility for his actions, instead blaming world events, US sub-prime lending, bankers, regulators, anyone but himself who led the way in making people think there would be no more problems. I would like to see him stop, take stock, admit that he was wrong, and apologise. This way, he could then start to lead in a different way and in a different direction.

But it's not just him. All those who believed him and therefore took out loans that were too large are in some way responsible too. Yes, they believed the chancellor, but should they have done? Was it reasonable to believe his statements? Set against the whole of history, were one man's statements really credible? Empires come and go, good times come and go, leaders come and go. So each of us must take some responsibility for our own actions, stop blaming the prime minister or the bank or the credit card company, and instead look inside.

Inside is where we start the change. Accept responsibility, and decide to change. Life will be different and we must perhaps live in a different way to take account of this. Self-discipline and personal responsibility to do what we know is right no matter what our leaders might tell us.

So as 2009 approaches, let's resolve that we will admit our own errors of judgement, resolve to be more honest with ourselves, and move forward in a more economically sustainable way for our own circumstances. If you think life coaching can help you achieve these, please contact me.

Get your talent noticed

2008-12-23T21:03:00.002Z

Happy Christmas everyone! I hope that your Christmas vacation is peaceful and that you find success in 2009.

To that end, I thought I would share something with you that I found recently. I'm not sure where it came from but I think the content is very useful and may help you towards that success. It's headed "Get your talent noticed".

Stop trying to win everything. Win where it is essential and let the other stuff go
Stop telling the world how smart you are
Stop undermining others in an attempt to make yourself look better
Stop sucking up to higher management
Stop acting like someone else
Stop getting immersed in the detail
Stop telling and start listening
Stop expecting your career to fall into your lap -- take control
Stop focusing on the endless tick-list of things to do. Find out what's going to make the biggest difference and focus on that
Stop hiding behind your desk. Get out there and network
Learn how you can make a difference to some of the big projects that really matter to your organisation.

There are some big statements in that list! But you can see that most have their basis in doing what matters most and focusing where you can have most impact. You don't need to make others look bad and try to shmooz the executives if you're doing a great job on something that matters. Of course, one item that's not listed above is, do something that you love. Not everyone has that luxury of course, while even the most wonderful job has its chores. But if you can get yourself into a position where the majority of your job is doing something that you're passionate about then you are really poised to excel!

If I can help you to find your focus in a job you love, find out what's stopping you getting it, or otherwise succeed and get noticed, give me a call. I offer 30-minute coaching sessions for just £30. Go here for details. I look forward to helping you to get yourself noticed.

My coaching focus: IT people who need to rebalance their lives

2008-11-28T16:30:00.004Z

For the last couple of years I've been coaching anyone who wished me to. I've enjoyed coaching people who were starting their own businesses, who were struggling to find a new direction in their lives, or who were simply struggling with life. I've contributed to helping all these people. Some of their testimonials are on my website and they tell the story better than I could about the impact I've had on their lives.

But recently I've realised that there's one particular area where I can add even more value. This is IT people who need to rebalance their lives. Why is this? Because of my 25 years in the IT industry. I've worked in the glasshouse, I've worked in professional services, and I've worked in sales. I've worked night shifts. I've worked 80-hour weeks. I've worked in roles where I've driven 40,000 miles a year. I've worked abroad, away from my family. I've experienced the pressures of utilisation targets and sales targets. And yes, I've known the effects of work-related stress and all the problems it brings.

So what better way to really contribute than to focus on coaching people who are struggling with the things I've struggled with! I've been there and know how it feels.

I've also revamped my approach to sessions and charging for them. I used to ask my clients to sign up for six, 45-minute sessions with all of them paid for up-front. This is good for me, but perhaps not so good for clients especially in these credit-crunch days. Therefore I'm now saying this: sessions will be 30 minutes long, done by phone and paid for by Paypal. There will be no long-term commitment required -- just book as you go. And the exploratory first session will be at no charge.

So in these days of incessant and increasing pressure of work, if you're looking for help to determine what's important to you and how you're going to achieve it, let me help you do that!

Contact me for a free exploratory session and let's take it from there. Go to my website at www.sunriseconsulting.co.uk/coaching.html. My email is peter-ward@sunriseconsulting.co.uk, phone +44 (0)1926 854115. You've got nothing to lose and a lot to gain. Don't let the credit crunch damage your life!

Giveaway budget?

2008-11-25T11:20:00.002Z

I've been wondering since yesterday afternoon about the way that the budget (officially pre-budget report, but clearly much more than that) has been billed.

So we get a reduction in VAT of 2.5% for 13 months. Perhaps this will be passed on to us, but somehow I doubt it. Even if it is, it only reduces the inflation rate from 5% to 2.5%, and then only for items which are VAT-rated -- so not food, for example.

To pay for this, there's an increase in National Insurance, an increase in flight taxes, increases in duty on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol, and a new higher tax for those earning more than me. These increases are permanent, in contrast to the VAT reduction which is temporary.

So I do wonder how this budget could have been presented as a giveaway, a "stimulus", intended to help the economy, when in fact it's being paid for by increases everywhere other than VAT.

It's not for me to say that this is the right or wrong thing to do at this point in time. But to me it's misleading to claim that it's one thing when it seems to be something else. Surely at this time even more than ever, it's important to be honest about what's being done?

I've been quiet...

2008-11-11T14:43:00.004Z

I've been very quiet over the last couple of weeks. There's so much going on in the world, so where would I start to comment? Some produce dozens of paragraphs per event but I tend to think a lot and not say so much.

But let's think about a few things:

1. Obama

Described by some as Moses and others as the Messiah. There's such euphoria about his election. It indicates a new direction for the US. But as others have noted, the new direction may not be what we wish. It may be that he's heading further in the direction of breaking down the essential culture of the country to make it more open to foreign influence, which will be Islamic. Something similar is happening in Europe through human rights legislation which results in very strange decisions on what's right and wrong, public and private (eg. Max Moseley's orgy should be private because it wasn't Nazi-themed). We see Sharia law becoming more prevalent in the West as a parallel system of justice. I know that Islam is a peaceful religion but there are a few who use it for their own ends and one of their statements is that they won't rest until the whole world becomes Islamic. That's quite a task, but is being aided by the West's willingness to be reasonable to accepting its culture. And its desire to use Middle Eastern funds to help us out of the credit crunch. As Lord Mandelson said, Saudi Arabia will expect a quid pro quo for the money it's put into IMF funds. Do we know what we're getting into? Will President Obama protect Western culture or recognise the potential challenges to it that Islamicists are threatening?

2. Credit Crunch

Whose job is secure? Whose company is solid? Whose pension is safe? Who put their money into property instead of a pension, only to find their house is now worth 25% less and still dropping?

Where will this all end? When your company can no longer afford to pay your final salary pension, or your defined contribution pot won't buy an annuity sufficient to retire on, and when your house is no longer a good investment, what are you going to do? Continue working till you drop? Will only public sector workers be able to retire now? And if so, what will that do for the continued balanced calm of society?

The fact is, the Bible said that there would be terrible times to come before Jesus returns. In the past as we've looked at crime, wars and inhumanity the world we've thought "can it get any worse?" but the answer is definitely "yes". And if we think it's bad for us in UK in the prosperous West, what about those in the developing world? What effects will all this have on them? I have some experience of conditions in a reasonably prosperous sub-Saharan African country and I can't imagine what would happen there if their wages were cut by 50% as a result of the global crisis. So what about in Sudan, Ethiopia, or Zimbabwe (or perhaps it can't get any worse there)?

Truly there is only one hope for the world, and that's the divine intervention that was promised by God from the start. Jesus promised that he would return to the earth to put it right by reestablishing God's kingdom, this time across the whole world.

3. Remembrance

11th November. We pause to remember those who died to preserve our way of life. It's right that we do. How sad that the "war to end all wars" didn't, and WWII didn't either, and mankind continues to attempt to resolve its issues by force. The book of Revelation in the Bible indicates that when Jesus returns that Man will fight against him too. Revelation is not an easy book to understand, but there's an event running in Birmingham this week that should help us all: Approaching Apocalypse at St Martin in the Bullring. More details here: http://uk.youtube.com/user/ApproachingApocalyps and here: http://www.approachingapocalypse.com

A few of my things on YouTube, and concerts I have known

2008-10-18T22:14:00.003+01:00

You can find almost anything on YouTube. It gives a fascinating insight into what we all find interesting.

My daughter and son-in-law are part of a group called Fisher's Tale. It's a Christian band who sing about their experience of Christianity and their hope for the future (you can buy their excellent CDs including Boundless at www.fisherstale.co.uk). I've filmed a few of their songs at various gigs and placed them on YouTube -- you can find them here along with a couple of others I've uploaded. They're also part of a wider Christadelphian body of videos referred to as "YouPreach" that you can find here.

The most recent upload was a song at the OMD concert in Birmingham earlier this month. I've loved OMD since Electricity came out in the mid-70s and have all their LPs including 3 different packagings of the first (how sad!) (and I'll save discussion of LPs, CDs and my hi-fi for a later post). The concert was excellent, with fantastic sound quality and visual effects that enhanced the sound. It was certainly one of the best concerts I've attended and I've been to a few through the years. So here is the song I recorded on my camera:

Not the best sound quality but hopefully gives some idea of the quality of the visuals. If you have any love for the music of the 70s and 80s you should go to an OMD concert.

Talking of concerts I've been to, probably the best ever would be in Leeds Town Hall almost 30 years ago where the USSR Symphony Orchestra played Schostakovitch's 10th Symphony. I love his symphonies and have a strong empathy with the feelings he communicates through them. Thinking of pop concerts, probably the worst was Blondie's "no exit" tour a few years ago at the NIA in Birmingham, when the lovely Debbie Harry couldn't hit a note. We left before the end, came home and put some records on instead. In her heyday her voice was unmatched but sadly she hasn't kept it. However, Clem Burke was utterly masterful on drums.

Finally, there's one more video I've placed on YouTube. In fact it was my first. If you like solitaire (the version you play with marbles or pegs when you have to leave 1 in the middle at the end) then you might like my video. After years of struggling to succeed, I finally worked it out while on holiday in a little cottage in Dorset. I decided to film it with the solitaire set on the windowsill and my younger daughter watching. It's her with her Tamagochi that you can see at the end, cheering :). It's here.

My blog from when I was in Ghana this Summer

2008-10-10T23:41:00.003+01:00

Earlier this year I was chosen as one of 100 IBM employees from over 10000 who had applied to participate in philanthropic work in the developing world. This was as part of an initiative called the Corporate Service Corps (CSC). I was delighted to be chosen because I've been leading a team of great IBMers for the last 2 years to bring IBM value to the developing world, and this has resulted in some opportunities with a business partner in Kenya.

Anyway, my CSC assignment was in Ghana. I performed some business consulting for an oil seed processor in Kumasi, Golden Web. I also worked with a colleague to improve the way that the whole oil seed supply chain functions, which resulted in us presenting to the Minister of Food and Agriculture and gaining his approval for our proposals. I recorded my thoughts during my time in Ghana in this blog: https://www.adtech.internet.ibm.com/corporateservicecorps/blog/11. You may find it interesting.

I also recorded a video which has been placed on YouTube. It's here:

I have to admit it's not the most flattering interview you could imagine!

While in Kumasi I filmed the intersection which was local to my hotel. I placed that on YouTube and it's here:

Some useful blogs and websites about AGW

2008-10-10T16:14:00.003+01:00

A few words on some blogs and websites that I enjoy following on the topic of AGW:

http://www.climateaudit.org. I'm an AGW skeptic. It may or may not be getting hotter at present (the graphs seem to indicate it's stopped over the last 5-10 years). If it is, it may or may not be due to human activity. We don't know enough yet. This website tries to keep track of the truth of the pro-AGW arguments so that we don't just blindly follow the "believers". Why is that important? Because all the funding and all the publicity goes to those who wish to make us pay for our effect on the climate, before we're even sure it's anything to do with us
http://climatedebatedaily.com. This is another useful AGW site. It provides links to papers that support AGW and to those which question it. This type of balanced view is highly unusual and therefore beneficial to the debate
http://www.john-daly.com/index.htm. This website doesn't change very often, but it does contain some very useful information. One is a record of satellite temperatures. Another is some detailed analysis of sea levels in Tasmania over the last 160 years. So much of what's being done to counterbalance the AGW orthodoxy is self-funded. Without the internet we'd hardly hear anything about it.

There are others. If you're interested I'll post some more, but I think these are enough for now :).

Technical and Adaptive changes

2008-10-09T15:49:00.003+01:00

I'm just listening to a fascinating presentation about the above. Simply put, technical changes are those which are within the ability of an organisation (or person) to handle. Adaptive changes are those which need a change of attitude or outlook.

Fixing a broken leg is a technical change, while reducing your cholesterol requires an adaptive change -- a change of lifestyle in this case -- which is harder. Sometimes we prefer to apply a technical change (eg. the latest pills) to address an adaptive change, because the problem with adaptive change is that we must give something up (perhaps milk or butter) and that's painful.

Sometimes in my coaching I have people coming with technical issues, but mainly they are rooted in adaptive challenges. Part of coaching is helping people to recognise that adaptive change may be necessary and then helping motivate them to see why they really want to make it happen -- because if it's worth accomplishing then the pain of loss will be worth it. Envisioning the future is part of this, and then identifying the steps required to achieve it. I refer to this as turning mountains into a series of molehills.

So with a real sense of purpose and a desire to accomplish the change, people can achieve adaptive change. Coaching can be really helpful to help people to clarify their purpose and boost (and maintain) their desire.

So if you see a problem in your life and it doesn't respond to simple technical change then consider that it may need an adaptive change. How do you have to change personally to make it happen? What do you have to give up? And then focus on the benefit of the results of the change to give you a sense of purpose and desire, so you have the motivation for the change. That way, you're more likely to succeed. A coach can make it easier for you if you need that. Either way, try looking at your challenges in that way and see if it helps. Let me know!

New Blog

2008-10-08T12:35:00.003+01:00

The beginning

I'm a keen follower of others' blogs. There are several that I read for valuable information that I can't get elsewhere. There are some that are just entertaining. Some give useful analysis.

So what's this one about? Well I'm increasingly finding that I have things I want to say that Twitter and Facebook don't let me. Just because there's not enough space in 160 characters to say what I want.

That's why I'm starting this blog. To talk about the many things I want to say. About coaching, certainly. About IT, perhaps. But also about what's happening in the world generally. And I'll value your comments so we can have a discussion.

Perhaps I should say where I'm coming from:

Firstly, I'm a Christian (a Christadelphian). So you won't find profanity or crudeness here and I won't value it in any comments
I'm a certified life coach. I love coaching. I have a coach myself of course, and I know how valuable it is to be coached. I'm always seeking people who wish to be coached by me. I generally coach on Fridays, early morning or evenings. Why? Because....
I also work 4 days/week for IBM. I've worked there for almost 25 years and had a wide-ranging career that started in computer operations and has been through everything from professional services and consulting to teaching, project management and relationship management. IBM's a great place to work and you won't find me slagging it off here. My current role is to support IBM's most senior client-facing technical specialists who provide strategic guidance to CIOs of our most important clients.
As part of my work for IBM I'm involved in a lot of additional activities. I manage IBM's University Relations relationship with WMG at the University of Warwick, where I am also a guest lecturer and developer of modules (including Service Science). I visit local disadvantaged schools to tell them about careers in industry. I work very hard to bring IBM value to the developing world -- in the Summer I spent a month in Ghana performing management consulting in the agricultural supply chain as part of IBM's Corporate Service Corps. I lead the core team of IBM's automotive industry community (2500 people globally). And I coach and mentor extensively within IBM.

I guess that's enough for now. You'll learn more as I continue to blog here. Welcome! I hope you are stimulated by what you find here.