Fakegate: some thoughts on that faked document

OK, so in entitling this post in such a way you already know what I think about it. If you disagree please say so, but also take a look at what's emerging around it, as documented by Anthony Watts at WUWT here.

I've been thinking about that faked "strategy" document, and wonder just how anyone could think otherwise. Why? Well look at it this way. I work for a US company. I know how US organisations structure documents. It's not restricted to US organisations but I think the approach is ubiquitous there. And this is not just purporting to be a document written by a US organisation, but a 2012 Strategy for the main Board.

So what do US documents look like?

1. Title page, with graphics, fancy title, strapline, etc. If it's confidential IT WILL SAY SO
2. Executive summary. This will not have loads of diversions and aggrandisements but simply state the message for the executives, together with recommendations
3. Table of Contents
4. Several chapters covering aspects of the content in detail. This is where the diversions and aggrandisements go, if any. If the document is confidential EVERY PAGE WILL SAY SO. Needless to say the document will be written in the passive voice
5. A "call to action" -- the actions recommended based on the facts, with timeline
6. One or more appendices, with figures, charts, graphs, backup facts, etc
7. Back cover

Instead, what do we have? 2 pages of mixed up summaries, numbers, puffery. A sentence beginning "I", of all things! A recommendation that it be kept confidential. It doesn't read like an executive summary, nor a fact-based analytical chapter, nor an appendix, nor a call to action. It's trying to be all of them, all mixed together. An intern would be told to rewrite it, and it wouldn't get within many management levels of the main Board in its current form.

So this makes me think 2 things:

• Heartland Institute would never have written something so amateurish, simply because its structure and "feel" is all wrong
• Dr Gleick may not have written it either. After all, he is the head of another US organisation. If he did, he is betraying the fact that he despises Heartland Institute as being a small amateurish outfit not capable of writing a good strategy document.

I guess we'll find out in time.

South Africa vacation

We're recently back from a great vacation in South Africa. I thought I'd blog about it because it might help others planning similar trips to ours. In brief, on our 2-week vacation we started in Cape Town, travelled along the Garden Route, and ended up on safari in Shamwari. Here's some more detail and comments. I've put some photographs on Facebook, here.

We flew with British Airways. They always do a great job. I wish there was a little more space in economy class, or that they didn't manage to sell out every flight I take, but you're in safe hands. We flew overnight and landed about 9am. We picked up a hire car and went straight to our hotel in Camps Bay, the Crystal. We had an apartment there, overlooking Camps Bay town and the beach, and also looking to Lion's Head to the right. We couldn't check in immediately, so decided that because the weather was good -- and it doesn't always stay like that in CT -- we would go up Table Mountain. Therefore, within a couple of hours of landing, we were in the queue for the cable car.

It was worth going straight there despite being tired. The views were stunning and it helped us to orient ourselves with CT and the peninsula. There were also selections of fascinating birds and flowers, and of course hot sun. We were really pleased we'd taken our binoculars to South Africa because it gave us a chance to look along the length of the peninsula, but also to start birdwatching on the top of the mountain! It is quite flat on top, with some precipitous slopes. There's a cafe and shop but we didn't bother, being in South Africa for 2 weeks. Regarding queuing, some people tell you to buy a ticket online to avoid the queue, but in our experience -- and that of others we spoke to -- the main queue is not for tickets but subsequently for the cable car. So don't worry about buying tickets in advance because it won't save much if any time. Also, don't be put off by the cable car queue -- it moves pretty quickly.

We spent the next few days in Cape Town. Some of the things we did:

• Attended the Christadelphian meeting in Cape Town, where I spoke. We enjoyed the same warm welcome that I received when I was there in December and it was great to be back
• Ate at the City Grill on Waterfront. We had a great meal -- steak, lamb, springbok -- sitting outside in the sun with a lovely view over the port to Table Mountain
• Saw the penguins at Boulders Beach. They were wonderful! We also saw white-fronted cormorants and oyks (black oystercatchers)
• Ate at the Brass Bell, Kalk Bay. It's where Judith had her first good-tasting Hake. Normally hake in UK is dry and rubbery but several times in South Africa we had excellent hake, as good as cod
• Drove along the Chapman's Peak Drive. R31 but well worth it for the views
• Went to the Cape of Good Hope through the reserve there. Forget Cape Point -- that's just a tourist attraction. The important point is off to the right on the way to Cape Point. There's a signboard there but little else apart from cormorants, but such a romantic place. To think that generations of sailors (including my grandfather) sailed round it after long and difficult voyages, and we just flew and drove there. I felt it was a very special opportunity that I didn't want to miss. Also in the reserve we saw our first baboons in South Africa and also ostriches and ibises
• Visited Stellenbosch and ate at the 1802 restaurant. It's behind the d'Ouwe Werf hotel and we would never have gone except it was recommended to us and I'd booked it for a meal with 2 of my technical staff based in Cape Town. We had another excellent meal there. I had bobotie for the first time, along with chicken pie and kudu steak in a 3-part platter of South African dishes. Stellenbosch itself is gorgeous, and we wished we'd been able to spend more time there
• Visited Kirstenbosch gardens. Totally stunning, we spend most of the day there and ate in the very good cafe in the grounds. As well as the wonderful range of trees and plants, we also again enjoyed seeing a wide range of birds. A temporary exhibition, Untamed, was also excellent, but after being there for 2 years is due to be dismantled soon
• Went up Signal Hill in the evening when it was a full moon. Seeing the moon hanging over CT was beautiful, enhanced by the winds just starting to create the famous "tablecloth" on Table Mountain while we watched. The road up was totally full of parked cars but they were from people climbing the Lion's Head so at the end it was quiet
• Visited Groot Constantia vineyard. What an experience! Beautiful gardens, perfectly restored old Dutch buildings (R10 to go in!), an excellent introduction to winemaking from the cellar tour, and wine-tasting for beginners without a trace of condescension. We bought some wine there, and some more in duty free on the way home. Anna's favourite wine is now their Blanc de Noir, and I have to say it's pretty good. We ate in their restaurant; you can sit outside overlooking the sea, inside, or in a courtyard, so we sat outside enjoying the sun once more
• Overall, there's just so much to do in the CT area that 6 nights wasn't enough -- we didn't even explore the centre -- but we had to move on so Friday morning saw us leaving CT for Hermanus.

We had one night in les Baleines hotel. Nice enough, if you like the highly decorated style. Our room was very comfortable but the patio door opened onto the shared terrace and we didn't really trust the the one-way plastic stuck to it! Hermanus is focused on whale-watching and surfing. Since the whales depart in December there wasn't really much point in being there, but it seems the travel agents send you there as the first stop on the Garden Route drive. We enjoyed a very good meal in the Burgundy restaurant, where I had the best seafood pasta ever while Judith had more excellent Hake as part of a mixed seafood dish. Anna's mussels were good but it seems they didn't all agree with her.

After a night there we were off to Montagu, in the Karoo and on the R62. This isn't normal when you drive the garden route, but we wanted to see the Karoo. On the way we stopped at Vergelegen, primarily to see the gardens which were amazing. Perfectly maintained and containing 300-year-old trees, we also enjoyed the Dutch-style buildings there too. And the cafe. And the wine-tasting. The wine wasn't quite to our liking there compared to Constantia, yet the clarity of taste was exceptional. This was where I think we finally recognised that most wine we get in UK supermarkets is junk!

Montagu is a beautiful town in the mountains of the Karoo. Full of old houses and quirky buildings, we really enjoyed our short time there. Our Mimosa Lodge hotel was great -- old, creaky, full of character. Our room on the front opened onto the balcony where we were able to listen to the bells of the church at the end of the road on the Sunday morning, and see what seemed like most of the town attending the services. Our Saturday night meal was at the Olive House, a wonderful restaurant, B&B and art gallery run by a Croatian lady. Along with Mimosa Lodge, it's a must if you're in Montagu! And one more thing that's a must: the bird sanctuary in town: full of Sacred Ibis and Egrets, we were also delighted to see 2 types of kingfisher and some weaver birds.

The scenery travelling to and from Montagu was stunning. Wide open spaces with tall mountains beyond, we felt very much at home in these areas and were in some ways sorry to return to the more normal Garden Route itinerary of the coast road.

We headed to Wilderness, another standard stop on the Garden Route -- and actually it seems its official start. What is the garden route? It seems to me that it's a stretch of coast which is green and lush, forested and with many nature reserves. There's no gardens as such. But I guess when so much of South Africa is fynbos -- basically scrub -- an area of forest and green fields is worth celebrating.

In Wilderness we stayed at a very luxurious private hotel, the Cinnamon Boutique. A huge room and beautiful furnishings throughout meant it was a special overnight stop. But Wilderness itself is nothing much, just a small village on the N2 behind a filling station. In fact, the restaurant we ate in, the Girls, is attached to the right of the forecourt. It was ok but not the best, although Judith and Anna both really enjoyed their salads. There I enjoyed watching the final of the Africa Cup of Nations, with first extra time and then 9 pairs of penalties not ending until after midnight, with the sound turned down so Judith and Anna could sleep. It was good to see Zambia win for all the significant and meaningful reasons, but I couldn't help but rue the refereeing decisions that saw Zambia go through ahead of Ghana in the semi-final.

We then moved on to Plettenberg Bay, staying at Laird's Lodge just outside. We stayed there for 2 nights and it was nice to be able to unpack properly and sort out our clothes. This hotel tried so hard to be posh. The staff were excellent, the food good, the grounds beautiful. But the room was painted dark green with matching curtains, a low lintel cut the room in two (painted the same colour), while some mass-produced artwork on the end wall was again exactly the same colour with drips of black and white paint on it. Coupled with the wardrobe being too small (in a huge room!), there being no TV or newspapers, no room service, no choice of food other than normal or vegetarian, it did feel like being in a PoW camp -- there was even an electric fence around the grounds! One of the many useless pieces of furniture in our room was a bamboo ladder, and I did wonder whether we were being encouraged to make a break for it, or whether we would have to hide in the laundry van. Fortunately, our key opened the electric gate.

While there, we visited several local attractions and locations:

• Knysna Elephant Sanctuary, where we fed, walked with and touched elephants. Judith especially enjoyed this
• Garden of Eden, where we followed a boardwalk around an area of unspoilt local forest
• Birds of Eden, where we again followed a boardwalk in a huge netted-over valley where both indigenous and other birds (and animals) were easily spotted and much enjoyed. It was here that a parrot sat on Anna and tried to peck off her Superdry logo!
• A viewpoint in Plettenberg, with views over one of the bays. A beautiful location, Plettenberg Bay town centre is nothing special but the location is stunning.

After 2 nights there, we moved on to Port Elizabeth. We were again following the N2, which runs from CT to Port Elizabeth (and beyond?). PE is very much a working port city, with its centre massacred by elevated roadways criss-crossing it. It doesn't seem to have many hotels, and we were booked into the Beach Hotel overlooking the pier and beach in the south part of the city. Very much a building of faded glory (built in the 20s and subsequently extended), our room was nothing special but did have a view directly over the bay and the original dining room retained beautiful roof trusses and decoration in arts-and-crafts style. I learned that Judith's grandparents visited PE in the 20s, and we wondered whether they would have stayed in our hotel, it being the right age and level of grandeur. Judith's finding out. We ate and the hotel's Ginger Restaurant which was very good.

Staying in PE again seemed like a superfluous stop, but it did give us time to visit Storms River Mouth on the way. In another reserve, we were surprised at the cost to enter but once there we realised it was worth it. Great views, 3 suspension brildges over lots of waves and spray, lots of Dassies and birds... and lodges. We're very tempted for next time :).

And then onto our final stop: Rippon's Lodge in the Shamwari reserve. This was down 20+km of dirt track and driving along this was the first time we were pleased that our "VW Polo or equivalent" Renault Sandero had slack suspension and high-profile tyres. It finally made some sense. There are many levels of safari, and it's probably fair to say that Rippon's Lodge is not at the cost-no-object end. But it's very good, with excellent staff, plenty of adequate food and access to the same guides as other lodges in the Shamwari. We were very lucky to have Nofias Mpala (linkedin) who was absolutely excellent -- patient with huge knowledge and quiet approach. If you go to Shamwari I recommend you ask for him.

So what did we see on our 4 3-hour drives over the 2 days we were there? Naturally a lot of antelope (impala, springbok, wildebeest, etc, etc) and birds (3 types of buzzard, a bustard, a secretarybird, etc), but also elephant, hippo, tortoise, white rhino, black rhino, giraffe, and finally lion! A real male, walking close to our Landcruiser truck. And the scenery was amazing too; just being out in it was wonderful even if we'd seen no animals. But a warning: it gets very cold in the Shamwari because it's high (about 1000m) and you're driving along in open trucks. So if you go, take lots of warm clothes and don't be shy to wear them :).

Our last day saw us fly from PE to Joburg and then from Joburg overnight to Heathrow. Arriving to 2degC was a shock, but fortunately we got home without incident and fell into bed.

We've had a wonderful holiday, one of our best. So much was excellent and almost everything was very good. It felt like we'd been away for months, not 2 weeks. I can definitely recommend the approach, but here's a couple of tips:

1. Crystal Hotel is a good base for CT, being out of the city. It's good value too
2. don't bother with Hermanus if it's not whale-watching time
3. it's worth staying in Stellenbosch
4. take a couple of days in Montagu, or stay in another town on the R62. Take time to enjoy the Karoo and follow the R62. Of course you must stay in the Mimosa Lodge and eat at Olive House!
5. don't bother with Wilderness
6. you could spend more time in the Plettenberg Bay area
7. don't go to Port Elizabeth unless it means something to you. It's not a holiday destination
8. Rippon's Lodge is a great place for a Shamwari safari
9. PE airport is very small. You don't need to be there hours in advance for an internal flight.

Overall, a great introduction to South Africa! Next time, we need to see more :).

Climategate 2.0

I thought I should make some brief comments about the latest fiasco in the long and unravelling AGW story. I can't add much to WUWT's excellent coverage (http://wattsupwiththat.com/) so please go there for the latest. Anthony is maintaining an easy-access list of article summaries in one or two main postings, the latest of which is here.

In summary, the latest batch of released emails go deeper into the problems that Climategate 1.0 emails started to uncover. It seems that those in the pro-AGW camp were very well aware of how flaky their so-called science was and were debating the problems between them at great length. And this was many years ago, not just recently. So when you compare what they said to each other in their emails with what they said to the world in the IPCC reports, it's clear that they were, let's say, not being entirely honest with us. And when you think of how much tax governments have raised to spend on "reducing the effects of climate change" on the basis of their stories, you realise how much damage they've done to the world.

Of course the COP17 conference continues in Durban -- I'm in South Africa at present and it's on the news here a lot -- but the reality is that there never was any robust science behind it. The latest batch of emails proves this -- and those pushing for further action must know they are looking increasingly foolish.

A while ago I wrote a post on "the gap". The point being that pro-AGW people used the "fact" that natural climate variation could not account for the total temperature change of the world, and so invoked CO2 to make up the rest. In fact, the world hasn't noticably warmed for over 10 years despite CO2 continuing to increase. In reality there is no "gap". These people are out of a job -- but of course that's a huge motivation to keep on talking up the problem. As with any pressure group (and that's all these AGW "scientists" are), they have a vested interest in keeping their "problem" going. Once it's solved they have to find a new job. So don't expect these pro-AGW people to admit they were wrong any time soon -- their livelihoods depend on you believing they're right. All they want you to do is to keep believing and keep paying the taxes.

Sunday in Cape Town

The second in my short series of thoughts about being in Cape Town.

I set off for the meeting just after 9am on Sunday morning. It was where I thought, under a road bridge. Apparently they've rented the room for 30 years. You don't get much road noise but there is also a railway line close by which is noisier!

The meeting's very friendly and informal, about 15 members. We started at 9:30 with a very good Bible Class. After a drink and cake -- apparently the same sister bakes every week -- we had the Breaking of Bread.

On the way back to the hotel I thought I'd drive around a bit. I went up the road past the Table Mountain cablecar and had wonderful views of the mountain and CT -- it was very busy with people parked everywhere and a long queue for the cable car so it's probably worth going early. I then went the other way and up the road to Signal Hill, where again there were wonderful views including of Table Mountain. It was really clear yesterday but I didn't think to take my camera so only have pics taken on my phone :(.

I returned to the hotel, had a rest and then walked into the old town of CT. A lot of it is quite bland but one of the roads I found has lots of interesting old building and wacky shops. I found a nice cafe, da Capo, in Greenmarket Square where I had big prawns and, impala steak which was pretty good. An English girl there was talking away on her phone to all her family. When I spoke to her it turned out that she is working as a nanny in New Zealand but her family runs an NGO, Real Youth, which helps children in a township near CT. So she'd been living in this township for a few weeks. It seems the work the NGO does is very worthwhile.

Walking back towards the hotel I found loads of roads closed and people sitting on the kerbs watching large TV screens. It turned out to be the switch-on of the Christmas lights, which was due at 8pm but the party started about 3:30pm. I found the main stage near the railway station and watched a group rapping and doing amazing breakdancing for a while. I didn't stop to watch the switch-on.

Overall I'd say CT is a fascinating place. There are areas of old buildings and interesting character, and then modern lively places such as the Waterfront. And then just down the coast are the most amazing steep mountains and white sandy beaches. I could imagine it being easy to spend quite a long time around here without getting bored.

Saturday in Cape Town

I'm working in South Africa at present, and have been spending the weekend in Cape Town. It's the first time I've been here and I emailed my thoughts to my family. I then thought I could post it here as well, so here goes....


Just thought I'd jot down a few thoughts on today. It's been really good. The sun is hot but it's windy so you don't feel too hot. First I went to Camps Bay, which is full of nice seasidey houses and appartments, as is Clifton to its north. Quite stylish. There's beaches and lots of cafes. I then went back into CT and down the M3, which goes round the east side of Table Mountain, and down towards Muizenberg. I did this to avoid a toll but came back the other way (more later). The road runs alongside some large lakes which look very natural. I then took the Boyes Lane towards Kalkbaai which has stunning views. I then followed the road down to Simon's Town and just past it to Boulders.

At Boulders I parked and went to see the penguins. They're very sweet. You pay to go close to them on boardwalks but you could actually just park in the free car park and see them from there as they're so close. I wouldn't though, because you get closer, can go near the beach and watch them go in and out of the water as well as sit/lie on the beach. I also saw what I think was a mongoose, lots of red-winged starlings and the pair of Oyks -- African Black Oystercatchers. I got some photos of them later but they were a long way away.

Once I left Boulders I went back to Simon's Town. It's very pretty. The main street has lots of old buildings, very colourful. I went into a few shops. After that I went further north up to Kalkbaai to a restaurant I'd been recommended, the Brass Bell. It's right on the sea with views over the harbour. I had lovely fresh fish (yellow tail fillet -- no idea what it is) and creme brulee which was excellent. With a glass of wine it was only R210. I had a wander round there too and found some very interesting little shops. Another fascinating town.

I then headed back but decided to go over to the west side of the peninsula. I cut through Noordhoek then along a wonderful road cut out of the rock, Chapman's Peak Drive, which had amazing views. This wasn't the only part that reminded me of the Amalfi Coast but it was especially good with dramatic steep slopes going straight down to the sea. While the sea on the east side (False Bay) is clear pale blue, the Atlantic coast is deep blue. The toll for that road is R31 so nothing to worry about. I then followed the coast road up through Hout Bay, Llandudno, Bakoven, Camps Bay, Clifton, Bantry Bay and Green Point back to the hotel. Overall I guess I've been out abut 7-8 hours. As you can imagine I took lots of photos.

I didn't go to Cape Point because I thought I'd save it for next time. Apparently it's very dramatic, and next to the Cape of Good Hope -- how could you come here without going there? -- but it's not actually the southernmost point of Africa, which is l'Agulhas.

Tonight I thought I'd head over to the waterfront, which I can see from my window, and have a wander round there. Maybe tomorrow afternoon I'll try the old town centre.

I thought Joburg was an interesting place but this area is amazing. Always the mountains and the sea are around you, and the towns are (mostly) characterful and interesting. In some ways it reminds me of Spain -- Cadiz -- and in others like Amalfi coast. It's certainly better than Joburg. By the way it's a flight of about 800 miles between them, 2 hours in the air, so it's a long way!

Amazon and 3rd party sellers: Buyer beware

I post this as a service to others who may need the information. Sadly I did not do my homework well enough and am left with a broken item that Amazon will do nothing about.

In December last year I purchased a Panasonic razor from Amazon. In late March the cleaning unit developed a fault which has got worse and worse. It is under 12-month guarantee. Amazon tells me I purchased the razor from a 3rd party. The 3rd party tells me I can get it serviced at any Panasonic repair shop. Panasonic UK tells me it has to go back to the retailer for replacement.

I have been caught out by the small print on the Amazon website. Normally when you purchase something on Amazon it's fulfilled by Amazon. But occasionally the website says, in small writing, "Dispatched from and sold by xxx". To Amazon, that means "it's nothing to do with me, guv". Even though you have no choice of who Amazon chooses to fulfil your purchase, it claims that you have decided to purchase the item from a 3rd party.

When complaining, you get a very friendly email containing a list of useful websites such as National Criminal Intelligence Service, CAB, OFT and UK Serious Fraud Office. But no assistance. Just "Amazon is not involved in individual transactions between buyers and seller".

So my new policy is this. When looking to buy something from Amazon where it is "Dispatched from and sold by xxx", unless I'm certain that Amazon's chosen fulfilment partner is trustworthy and recognised in its own right, I will not buy through Amazon.

Thanks, Amazon. You don't seem to understand. When I purchased from Amazon I believed I was buying from Amazon. Yes, sometimes I can choose to use a 3rd party but on this occasion I didn't have that choice -- I bought from you. You decided to put in the small print that actually I was buying from someone else but it wasn't obvious to me and I had no choice over the 3rd party you chose to use to fulfil my purchase. Yet you treat me as if I actively chose to purchase from a German company I'd never heard of! This is not the way to keep customers coming back. But then I guess Amazon is big enough to lose a few along the way and not care too much.

So I have learned my lesson about Amazon. I hope I can protect others from a similar fate.

Salt bad for you? Seems not

I've always felt that the strict guidance on salt being bad for you has been at best an overstatement of risk, and more likely just plain wrong. When you think about previous generations who took salt tablets in hot climates, and about Roman soldiers paid partly in salt (salary), it just doesn't seem possible that salt is inherently bad for you.

That's not to say that we should eat massive amounts of salt. Moderation in all things, of course.

But the literature always made it clear:

• "with the exception of a minority of patients with high blood pressure, there is no clear proof that eating less salt helps lower blood pressure in the general population" (http://goo.gl/ZxFtc -- reporting by CNN back in 1996)

• "Whilst there is little doubt that salt restriction lowers blood pressure in hypertensive patients, there remains some uncertainty whether any effect is seen in normotensives. The effects, if present, are small (reducing systolic pressure by about 2 mmHg) and not clinically useful" (http://goo.gl/XIh2G -- summary of paper "The epidemiology of salt and hypertension" in Clinical Autonomic Research vol 12 no 5, 2002, published by Springer).

A paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) this month (http://goo.gl/h7v78) confirms these statements:

• "In this population-based cohort, systolic blood pressure, but not diastolic pressure, changes over time aligned with change in sodium excretion, but this association did not translate into a higher risk of hypertension or CVD complications. Lower sodium excretion was associated with higher CVD mortality."

...or as summarised here in more comprehensible English:

• "And, perhaps most interesting of all, the increases in salt and diastolic pressure were not associated with an increase in deaths from cardiovascular disease, such as heart attacks and strokes. Indeed, people with less salt in their urine were more likely to die from cardiovascular causes."

So not only is salt not bad for most people, low-salt diets may actually be harmful!

Now of course the low-salt people -- including governments who are deeply into protecting us from ourselves -- are telling us that this latest study is flawed. Well they would, wouldn't they? But for now, I'll continue to enjoy salt, especially that wonderful Himalayan pink rock salt that just tastes so good :).

But there's a wider perspective here. Science progresses by testing and amending hypotheses. Nothing in science is settled, it's just that some hypotheses stand up to testing better than others. In our post-scientific age, some scientists think their job is to prove their hypotheses, when in fact their job is to try to disprove them. By failing to disprove, they thus strengthen them. The result of this massive misunderstanding is that they create experiments to prove their theories and then only publish papers if they work. This leads to publication bias that gives the impression that hypotheses are stronger than they actually are. This is one of the main issues with climate science: people trying to prove it and then publish their "success", rather than trying to disprove it and publish whatever their results.

So for now we shouldn't worry about our salt intake unless we're in the at-risk group of those who already have high blood pressure. But we should also watch this debate over salt because it's very analogous to the climate change debate as well. We should take the claims of climate activists with a pinch of salt as a result!

Pre-Easter visit

hello everyone!

We were at Gannets last week. We had such fantastic weather, it could almost have been Summer. We spent time in the garden, which is really sheltered so when there's a wind down on the Coast Road it's still and warm in the garden. It's so peaceful lying in the hammock listening to the birds :). We watched a pair of blue tits flitting to and from the nestbox on the back of the garage, so we're pretty sure there'll be some babies fledging before too long. Do let us know if you see them.

In the house, we had a few jobs to do:

• the DVD player was not working well, so we replaced it with a new Sony DVD player. I hope this is easier to use. For now, I've written on the instructions to highlight the differences in how to use it, but we'll get an updated printed version to Gannets as quickly as we can
• the amplifier wasn't working either! It turned out to be the power supply. I managed to find a suitable replacement in stock at RS Components and they sent one before we left
• the mosaic floor tiles under the basin in the bathroom were in a worse state than ever. So instead of just resticking one or two, I removed a 6x8 patch and replaced them with new tiles. I hope this will last for a bit longer. The problem is that there's a rodding eye under the tiles there so it's a metal surface that's affected by the temperatures of the water than flows under it
• I also applied a little clear mastic to the bottom of the new shower screen to try to stop water seeping between it and the first seal. It seems to work, but let us know if not
• the garden was in need of tidying. Judith did a great job in the front garden, and we had a massive bonfire in the back. We also trimmed the rear hedge and patched a hole that had appeared on the fence. The new owners of Greenacres (the house at the bottom of the garden) are restoring the house and we expect they'll move on to the garden eventually. We guess they'll want to replace the fence across the whole of the bottom of our garden
• we tidied the garage and made sure the bats, balls, spades, etc that are on the shelves are ready for use by our guests.

We also ate at Cookies for the first time! We've been going to Salthouse for years and never eaten there -- it's not easy to get a table -- so we thought we really should :). And it was worth it. Excellent quality food sitting in the sun. And while I'm thinking about it, don't forget that the Old Post Office is now a great delicatessen. The salt marsh beef is especially good, but it does a range of lovely food as well as newspapers, gifts and various essentials. There's no need to drive to Cley or Holt now for most items.

We had another lovely and relaxing time at Gannets, and hope that you, our guests, do too! It really is somewhere that makes us go "ahhhh" when we get there -- relax, unwind, and feel refreshed. Happy Summer!

Africa trip day 10: Conference day 2

Thanks again to Butterfly for the free wifi at Nairobi airport. Not so quick tonight, but still welcome.

The conference restarted this morning with slightly fewer attendees. Overall the tenor of the conference was quieter and less confrontational. There were more positive mentions of iTSCi and ITRI, and some good discussion.

Over lunch, a meeting of ITRI and the BGR people came to the conclusion that iTSCi was the best solution to meet one of BGR's gaps. This legitimises iTSCi in the eyes of those who previously found it unacceptable, and strengthens the position of the project in the overall landscape. This was a great step forward. All that's required now is funding!

The afternoon saw further attenuation of attendees, but the discussion was positive and confirmed the value of OECD and ICGLR working together. It was agreed that an MOU should be completed for review at the next meeting of foreign minsters in November.

The Kenyan government hosted a reception at the end of the conference, and much discussion continued over drinks. I was given an invitation to speak to the British ambassador to DRC when I'm back home, while having good opportunities to talk to the US and several others ambassadors at the conference. There was plenty of goodwill for IBM being part of the solution. I made some fascinating contacts and have lots of business cards to follow up.

Now the work really starts. There's so much to do both for DRC and Rwanda, and it will be a challenge to meet everyone's deadlines while at the same time ensuring the appropriate contracts are put in place. But this is a good problem to have. We have confirmed the opportunity to make a difference to the lives of tens of thousands of miners and to improve the economy of these countries as a result of greater transparency.

Now I'm on my way home. The flight leaves in 90 minutes and I hope I'll get a good sleep before driving home tomorrow morning. Lots to do, but worthwhile and valuable!

Africa trip day 9: OECD/ICGLR conference day 1, Nairobi

Where to start? Perhaps with some definitions:

OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. An international organisation dedicated to supporting sustainable economic growth, boosting employment, raising living standards, maintaining financial stability, assisting other countries' economic development and contributing to growth in world trade. Very much an international outlook, with a commercial perspective.

ICGLR: International Conference on the Great Lakes Region. A regional organisation focused on the 11 countries of this area of Africa, dedicated to peace, security, stability and development in the Great Lakes region. A much more localised outlook, with a humanitarian perspective.

The conference has brought together the 2 organisations to consider the responsible supply chain management of conflict minerals. The focus is on DRC, and is the third preparatory meeting leading up the a major conference in November this year.

It soon became apparent that there were conflicting views on the priorities. The ICGLR, apparently led and supported by various NGOs and advocacy groups, supports certification of mines, independent auditing of supply chains, and "transparency" ie. publication of all results.

The OECD, I think supports traceability as the first priority. This befits its more international outlook where the top priority is to prevent a complete shutdown of the DRC mining industry in about 6 months. If it doesn't support this, then only the industry bodies support it: ITRI, the Tantalum equivalent (TIC), EICC and GeSI (sustainability-related trade organisations).

I guess that it's easier to audit paper trails and spring unannounced visits on smelters than it is to get hands dirty implementing a working system that permits manufacturers to prove the origins of their metals. But unless the US government changes its timescales and its requirements, certification in a year or so is not going to meet the needs of industry. That could mean that industry sources its minerals from non-conflict areas of the world; after all DRC only provides about 7% of world tin and tantalum, so it won't be a major issue for them. It would only be a major issue for DRC.

The message seems to be that the ICGLR and NGOs will continue to work on certification. If industry wishes to implement traceability then it can pay for it. This is terribly sad, as the money spent on certification would easily fund the traceability solution that would keep 30% of the mining and mining-dependent population of eastern DRC in work and in business.

There are 3 possible bright spots:

1. The lady from Ford Motor Co and AIAG is interested in traceability and could help bring the automotive industry into the picture
2. The potential requirement for the gold mining industry to implement traceability. This could bring them into the picture as well
3. The guidance from the GB delegation to speak to our ambassador to DRC, Neil Wigan, next week when he's in the UK. The delegation itself wasn't interested but perhaps he will be.
   

After spending over a week hearing strong endorsements of our approach, seeing how traceability can address the urgent issues and bring greater wealth to the 3 regions of eastern DRC, it's a slap in the face to see ICGLR and others apparently following a relevant but far less urgent approach. If it succeeds in having its approach endorsed then miners in eastern DRC -- plus the rest of the population dependent on them for their own livelihoods -- will become destitute in about 6 months.

So we have an objective now to get people to listen. I wonder what it will take?

Africa trip day 8: Goma to Nairobi

What a day! Incredible highs and deep frustrations...

We left the hotel in a minibus about 8am. The hotel is about 100m from the Rwanda border so it was quick to reach. There we got off and our passports were stamped to say we'd left DRC. Some parts of DRC are clearly beautiful and so many of the people are excellent, but overall I'm pleased I'm having a break from it.

After that we moved into no-man's land towards the Rwanda border. We had to queue for our passports to be stamped again and our details to be recorded in a massive ledger. We wondered whether these ledgers were ever checked! Then we took our luggage to be rifled. Plastic bags are banned in Rwanda so, more than contraband and illegal immigrants it appears that the border guards are most keenly looking for Sainsburys carriers. Unfortunately my dirty washing, my second pair of shoes and my cereal bars became bagless and scattered round my cases. Not a great advert for Rwanda since we were to be leaving 5 hours later. But rules are rules I guess.

We then set off on a 3-hour drive of a lifetime. The road from Goma to Kigala goes through a national park of the most stupendous mountains and valleys. I thought of the mountains and valleys just off the coast of southern Spain, but these are double and triple the scale. The drops are thousands of feet. The mountains include extinct volcanoes (the live one is on the DRC side of lake Kivu). And everywhere the valleys are cultivated and the valley sides are terraced. Rice, tea, legumes, sweetcorn and other crops were abundant, with goats and cows plentiful as well. Everywhere people were working, either building or farming or repairing or generally being busy. The scene was quite different to other parts of Africa where people sit by the side of the road passively "selling" charcoal or fruit. Nobody was passive in Rwanda. It also reminded me of China in the vast scale of cultivation in the valleys and the number of people involved. Just breathtaking! My camera battery was soon flat but no camera could capture the immenseness of the landscape.

Also along this route were areas of western-standard tourist hotels. One gave the game away in terms of what they're there for -- it was called the "Gorillas Volcanoes Hotel". People come here to see both. The walking opportunities must be wonderful! And as the road came closer to Kigali it dropped into the valley bottoms where more cultivation was visible, before again climbing. The average height of Rwanda is over 1 mile above sea level, so I have no idea just how high we were at times today.

We got through Kigali without too much hassle, then checked in for the flight to Nairobi. I had been reading reviews of Kenya Airways last night and was very apprehensive. As it was, check-in was smooth, we took off before the scheduled time and arrived early as well. The onboard meal was adequate and the staff polite and cheerful.

The visa queue took 30 mins to negotiate but the process itself was painless. Collecting our bags from the carousel we then headed to one of the hotel cars that had been reserved for us. The driver said it should take no more than 30 minutes even in the rush hour. Ha! Either he was lying or there was a severe issue in Nairobi today, because it took a full 2 hours to cover 12km. With 4 in the car -- and me in the middle at the back, as is my wont being the smallest most of the time -- it was hot, uncomfortable and very frustrating! However, on the way we did see some huge vulture-like birds roosting in the trees by the roadside. Checking on google I think they were vultures, but some disagreed. By the way, on the road through Rwanda an eagle sawed over the road and landed in the verge. Again checking google I think it was a long-crested eagle. Just amazing! And in our taxi was someone from a gold refiner (attending the OECD conference) who believes gold will be next on the list for traceability; I explained our solution :).

Finally arriving at the Crowne Plaza, chaos reigned. Just 1 poor member of staff was on the reception desk for all the delegates now arriving. It turned out that several of our party as well as other delegates had had their room bookings lost by the hotel, while some bookings had become corrupted (eg. from 2 1-person rooms to 1 2-person room). Some people had to go to other hotels. Fortunately my Holiday Inn loyalty card not only got me the room I'd booked, but also an upgrade to a suite. I am now occupying a suite with a floor area not far off the area of my house, with 2 bathrooms, 2 TVs, I don't know how many telephones, and finally enough space to empty my suitcases and have a good sort-out! I've just had room service, because I don't know where to go and the food here in the hotel is cheaper than in either Rwanda or DRC!

The conference starts at 9am tomorrow, with registration from 8am. Time for a good night's sleep.

Africa trip day 7: Meetings in Goma

We were up early to go to see the regional Governor, but he had arranged other meetings. We hoped that these were to do with our trip. Instead, we went first to a comptoir. This one was pretty well organised, but the cleanliness indicated a lack of activity. It too was of course hit by the mining suspension. Fortunately it had another branch in a region unaffected by the suspension and was able to continue trading from there, but not all comptoirs are so fortunate.

From there we went to another hotel for meetings and lunch. The Nyima had a lovely garden and we ate on the covered terrace. The buffet food was again tepid/cold so I was careful what I ate, but I didn't suffer major ill effects. The cappucino and the fruit smoothie were excellent.

One of the meetings at the Nyima was with a representative of an advocacy NGO. This NGO has been critical of some efforts to remove conflict minerals from the chain in the past, mainly because it has perceived a lack of care for the people involved. The discussion today indicated that it now understood our project and was seeking to come onboard. The representative later attended the Comite de Pilotage meeting and spoke positively. It's good when these things happen. One cause of the earlier misunderstandings was probably that our project had not fully commenced in North Kivu (where the NGO has an office) before the suspension was announced, so it had not had chance to see the tagging in action.

After lunch, one group went to meet the Governor and regional minister of mines while the rest of us attended the Comite meeting. Both meetings went well. Some positive things came out of the Governor meeting. The Comite meeting first covered the project status and then discussed the impact of the suspension. I was able to make some points on behalf of the team members not present regarding progress in South Kivu that indicated positive results.

Further meetings and discussions were held amongst the team members as we came to the end of this part of our trip. It has been good to see how the various team members have come together around the project and are committed to it. I'm impressed with the commitment of the supply chain generally to support the project's efforts. It's a powerful coalition of industry forces that should be recognised.

After a light meal I went to bed early. Sadly the room next to mine was again occupied by someone either deaf or oblivious, as the TV blared loudly until after midnight. This time it did keep me awake.

This part of the trip has been as successful as the last. North Kivu has a larger mining industry than South, and the parties are very well organised. The various government organisations are working together and voicing the same opinions as in South Kivu. This common voice to national government bodes well for the future of the industry. And it's been a pleasure staying in the Ihusi hotel after some of the others we've been in.

Tomorrow we head across the border back to Kigali, Rwanda and then fly to Nairobi for the OECD meeting. We drive to Kigali so it will be interesting to see the scenery outside of the towns.

Africa trip day 6: to Goma

We were up early and onboard the boat before 7am. First we had to queue for our luggage to be weighed. We were officially allowed only 10kg of "hold" luggage but if there was an extra charge I've not seen it yet. The boat held about 40-50 people and was hot inside. People were allowed on the for'ard deck in 2s but I didn't really feel up to it. The trip from Bukavu to Goma took just under 3 hours.

Arriving in Goma, we were driven to the Ihusi hotel and checked in. My room is spacious, with an ensuite plus a sitting room/kitchen area in addition. The hotel has largish grounds including a swimming pool, tennis court, several bars and restaurants, and is right next to the lake.

While most people got lunch, I spent a while on emails and then went to bed for an hour. After this I felt better. At 3pm we started a preparation meeting for the OECD conference in Nairobi on Wednesday-Thursday this week. It turns out that at least 2 of the party have been allocated either speaker or chair slots on the agenda without them being asked or told. We spent some time reviewing the draft documents and identifying changes we'd like to see based on our knowledge of the mining industry and the area.

After that, we went for a short drive around Goma down to the area which is still basically a lava field following the eruption of the Nyiragongo volcano in 2002. This volcano is only a few km from the town and covered about 1/3 of it then. People are now recolonising the lava and are using it to build houses and dividing walls, though hardly anything grows. It was ultimately rather sad to see a typical African streetscene reproduced on a lava flow. However, heading into that area of town did give us the chance to see the volcano smoking before it got too dark.

We drove from there to the Cap Kivu hotel for our evening meal. We were joined by the local senator and the deputy head of the local comptoirs. We learned about the effects of the mining suspension in North Kivu -- the same as in South Kivu -- and about their meetings with the regional mining minister last week. We were also able to see the volcano glowing, especially during the several powercuts that occurred while we were in the hotel. We ate down by the lake and although it got a bit chilly it was lovely to be by the water's edge in such a beautiful area.

I've learned that lake Kivu is about 1 mile above sea level. Kigali, Rwanda, is about the same. Johannesburg is similar. It seems I've spent the last month living a mile high!

Africa trip day 5: in my room

I knew there was a problem last night, though I couldn't work out what it was. Well at 12:30 I found out. 45 minutes in the bathroom and most of my insides seemed to have come out in one direction or the other. Fortunately I had brought some Immodium with me! The toilet in my room doesn't flush properly and I found that the shower doesn't do hot water. I limped back to bed.

3 hours later I was there again. More Immodium.

Fortunately it seems to have done the trick. No more evacuations, but feeling very weak. I have spent the day in my room drifting in and out of sleep. The noise outside is variable, sometimes Congolese music, sometimes guys yelling, sometimes 4x4s rattling past, and sometimes such loud hammering it feels like it's in the room. And the room feels warm but I don't know if that's real or just me. Certainly the sun's shining beautifully through the curtains.

I've just been down to the bar for 4 bottles of water. I need to drink more. Perhaps in a while I'll feel up to showering. I don't feel up to going out tonight. I tried to follow the process for alerting people to my plight but it seems several people in the chain have been to see the gorillas together today and have had their phones off. I really don't think I need to tell Pact's country director I'm ill. I guess when they switch their phones on they'll get my messages.

I'm hoping to feel better tomorrow. We start with a boat trip along the Kivu lake to Goma. That could help. Then it's back into the same types of meetings we've had in Bukavu with the aim of achieving the same aims for North Kivu as we've done for South Kivu.

Africa trip day 4: in and around Bukavu

Friday. Was it really only Tuesday that I flew out of Heathrow? It could be 4 weeks ago, not 4 days. Today has been another long day, but very profitable.

We had a lie-in this morning. We didn't have to leave the hotel until 8:15. Several people were very unhappy with Hotel la Roche so we all had to move out -- another packing job.

Our first meeting was at the iTSCi office in Bukavu. Very well set up and extremely neat and clean, we had the opportunity to go out on to 2 balconies and take photographs of Bukavu town. It's very hard to know when photography is acceptable here so I've not taken many -- I love to just point and shoot from the car and hope 1 in 100 is good -- and so taking photos across the rooftops to the hills was great.

The first meeting was with the iTSCi project team in DRC to review progress. This generated lots of discussion from the industry members of the party that had not heard so much about the project background. Some useful statistics indicated that tagging is well underway at both mines and negociants.

Our next meeting was with 5 comptoirs and negociants. Their perspectives on the project and the current mining suspension were very valuable. It was especially interesting to hear of the costs of doing business in DRC.

We went back to la Roche to check out and pick up baggage, then drove to our new hotel. I'm still not sure of the name of it but it's built with a concrete spaceframe infilled with brick, designed to look old (and pretty unlevel inside) but it can't be very old. There we got our rooms and had lunch. No lake view here, but it's cleaner than la Roche and on balance it's better.

After lunch we went back to la Roche to use its meeting room for a meeting of the Comite de Pilotage, the iTSCi's steering committee. The presence of the foreign "delegation" drove a very high attendance and the regional Minister of Mines co-chaired the meeting. There was much discussion of the suspension, what various interested parties would like to see in place as part of the project (new roads, better conditions for families, etc), and fortunately about the progress of the project itself. The Minister took some thoughts away and we hope that the message about mining partially funding the project will help him to obtain a waiver on the suspension for participating mines.

The CdP meeting ran for around 3 hours. We were pleased to escape back to the Co-Co for a meal. I and another of the team exited early to get a quiet evening and a good night's sleep. Several people go to see gorillas tomorrow, while others are flying to see a goldmine. I'm doing neither so hope to get some emails processed.

Day 3: travel to DRC and a day in Bukavu

Up early to get a taxi at 6:30 to the airport. The boarding card for the 8am flight said to board from 8:30, but we actually took off before 8am in typical African fashion -- when everyone's there why wait?

The flight was just 30 minutes to Kamembe, a small airstrip close to a very pretty town on Lake Kivu. On arrival, we were met by several cars and members of the iTSCi project team from DRC. We drove through the town to the border and passed out of Rwanda very quickly. One of the team then took all our passports and took them together to the DRC border control on our behalf. It helped that the deputy Regional Minister of Mines was there to meet us and smooth our way.

So we got into DRC much quicker and more easily than everyone expected. We were then taken to the UN compound for a security briefing. This wasn't really much help, and actually emphasised how the UN rules were in place to protect UN staff. Following that, we went to our hotel. We were all registered for a nice hotel but a delegation of EU ambassadors had hijacked it so we went to the Hotel la Roche instead. Down on the lake but very much past its peak, it wasn't very welcoming. My allocated room was small and dirty but I managed to get a transfer to a larger one -- not much cleaner but at least it had towels and some hangers in the wardrobe. And the water works.

Overall, Bukavu has some very impressive houses and its setting on hills stretching down to the lakeside is beautiful. But many buildings are crumbling and its roads are attrocious. Not a tourist destination.

After a short meeting of introduction in the hotel we headed off to the office of the Regional Minister of Mines. As is normal in these parts, we introduced ourselves and the iTSCi project, put our case, made subtle suggestions for what the government could do about the ban, and listened to his thoughts. He gave us his support.

We then went to see the vice-Governor of South Kivu. We had a while to wait in his comfy conference room because he didn't want to talk to us without the minister being there. He then proceeded to give us his wishlist of things to be put right. Only after an hour or so of (translated) discussion did some of the team finally manage to get his support in an ofline discussion.

Despite the first hotel kicking us out, we went there for a belated lunch. It was pretty good. I had steak and rice and the steak was very tasty if not tender -- not unusual here. We then went to see a comptoir within Bukavu, finding it very quiet due to the mining ban.

After a quick stay in the hotel, we went to the house of a local businessman who had offered to host us for a meal. He was an extremely good host and we had a good Indian-inspired meal.

Then it was back to the hotel for the first night's sleep of the trip where we will be able to stay in bed beyond 6am -- luxury!

Africa day 1, end, and day 2 -- mines and processors

Sitting in Nairobi airport just before 22:00, I decided to ask the Kenya Airline staff at a different gate which gate would be for Kigali. They told me it would be that one and that it was now open. I tried to ignore the fact that the display said "Paris" and went through. Fortunately it worked out ok...

Arriving in Kigali, the driver from the hotel picked me up and took me to the Serena. We arrived at 01:20 local time, and not the 02:10 advertised time. Clearly 02:10 is the Nairobi time but Rwanda is 1 hour behind Nairobi. So At present I'm just 1 hour ahead of UK time.

Unpacking a little, I finally got to bed about 02:30 and didn't sleep much until it was time to get up at 6am.

Day 2, Wednesday

I have seen and learnt a lot today. The first thing I learnt is that Rwanda is not a poor country. Incomes for skilled workers are high, several thousand dollars per month. To rent a nice house costs $2500/month. This is not Tanzania, not even Ghana. Apparently the Rwandan president has said he wants Rwanda to be the Switzerland of East Africa. People talk about Ghana as being "Africa for beginners" and I would say Rwanda also qualifies for that description, based on what I've seen and learnt today.

I have also seen how beautiful it is. The first place we went was up in the mountains above Kigali. The landscape reminded me of mountainous Spain, with cultivation in the valleys and terracing up the hillsides. But here we were 2000m above sea level. There are numerous vultures and eagles plus other birds of prey, and beautiful sparrow-sized birds with bright blue breasts. And bright yellow birds. Unfortunately I have no idea what they are.

We visited a tin mine not far from Kigali. This is a great success story. Refurbishing a disused Belgian mine, it now employs 3000 miners and has a very paternalistic approach to employee care. With big plans for further growth, it demonstrates what can be done here. We actually got taken about 1km into the working mine, seeing miners at work digging tin ore out of the rock.

After lunch, we visited a tin ore buyer/processor. An excellently run operation, it is very careful not to purchase any non-ethically mined ore. It requires its suppliers to agree to strict terms about this.

Throughout the day we discussed the new US law on ethical minerals and the ITRI tracking project. We also discussed how different we should expect DRC to be tomorrow.

Tonight we have a meal together to plan the next part of the trip. It should prove to be a stimulating discussion.

Africa trip day 1: almost complete -- arrived in Nairobi

The flight from LHR to Nairobi was uneventful. Unfortunately it was quite cloudy for much of the way so I didn't get chance to see much, though it did clear pretty much over the Sahara. ITRI, which is paying for my trip, kindly booked me in to BA World Traveller Plus, which is a great improvement on World Traveller. Only 1 seat fewer across the plane, but this gives bigger seats and they give you more legroom as well. The same food as economy but more space -- a good compromise that I will look into again in future.

My hold bag was checked through to Kigali, Rwanda, from LHR. I also managed to check in to the Nairobi-Kigali flight in LHR as well. Although I've confirmed it several times, including at the transfer desk in Nairobi, I will believe it when I see it on the carousel in Kigali. Of course I have a change of clothes in my carry-on bag just in case!

I was amazed to find wifi here in Nairobi airport. And more than that, it's free. So thank you to Butterfly, whoever or whatever you are, for providing it. Very much appreciated.

I've now got 2 hours until the Kigali flight. There's not a lot to do in Nairobi airport so I'm just replicating my work email and will process as much of that as I can while I'm waiting -- and while my battery lasts. I recall previous transits through this airport, including one 2 years ago when I was threatened with arrest for taking photographs. My camera is firmly in my bag! At the end of this trip I'll be spending 2 days in Nairobi at an OECD conference so I'll get to see more of Kenya than just the airport. I'm looking forward to that!

Trip to DRC and Rwanda

Hello everyone,

I've decided to add a few posts to my blog here while I'm away. So look out for updates!

Peter

A few things to think about

Hello! Sorry I've been away for so long.

Well actually I tend to record my thoughts -- such as they are -- in Twitter at present. If you're interested you'll find me at twitter.com/Peter_Ward. It's so easy just to add a simple thought in 140 characters that it has become my default place for thinking out loud.

Such a lot has happened recently. There's been further storms over climate change, showing even more than previously that the science has been hijacked by politics. The investigations into "climategate" have predictably been whitewashes. But perhaps there's some good on the horizon, since political parties both here and in the US seem to have become less keen on taking actions over CO2. Yes, they'll keep the taxes of course, and continue to spout green words, but aren't taking any actions. I guess this is the best we can hope for!

What else? Well I've been busy speaking about the "SMS for Life" project. Last week I was in South Africa presenting to IT industry analysts. In the next month or so I have 3 lectures scheduled. It's still attracting a lot of interest, and that's great. Meanwhile, I'm now working on a project in Democratic Republic of Congo and plan to be in DRC, Rwanda and Kenya before the end of this month. I expect DRC and Rwanda will be quite different to Tanzania and Ghana where I've been previously, perhaps more dangerous, but I won't be alone so I'm hopeful we'll all be fine.

Meanwhile, I've been thinking about changing my approach to advertising. After a brief and embarrassing fling with a company claiming to be Google who said they could get me on the front page of Google searches for only £99/month (I'd better not say who it is, but if you get a similar call just put the phone down), I've decided that I need a better page advertising my ebook. In addition, I plan to charge for it. I've given away over 100 copies now, and feedback is 100% positive that it is valuable and helpful. 100% of responses 100% positive! That's too good to give away any more. Look for a new page and new advertising soon!

I think that's enough for now. I hope you all had a good Summer, and that the Autumn gives us some more warmth to enjoy. We could do with it!

A short catch-up courtesy of Strata-Sphere

Sorry it's again been too long since I posted here. Life's too busy :).

So here's a short resume of AGW stuff that's emerged over the last month or so, courtesy of Strata-Sphere. Rather than create my own summary, let me point you at some of Mr Strata's.

The first is a roundup here.

The second is about the lack of accuracy of thermometers used to measure global temperatures. You'd think that, if we're obsessing about temperature changes in the order of 0.1degC we'd be measuring temperatures to this level of accuracy. We're not. Because the majority of thermometers is use are your normal mercury type that measure +/-0.5degC or so if you're lucky. And then there's the effects of changes to the local environment around the thermometers (change of land use, etc) that skew the readings over the longer term as well. See the information here.

And finally for now from Strata-Sphere, here's his latest post on the way that AGW fanatics are losing ground. I'll believe it when I see it -- the MSM seems to ignore most of the news about AGW weaknesses -- but these quotes are good. It's here.

I hope you're also keeping up with WUWT and Climate Audit? Good :).

Non-linear effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas

There's always been arguments about how much impact the rising levels of CO2 theoretically have vs. their actual effects. Climate scientists know that CO2 alone cannot account for the forecast 2-6degC temperature rise by 2100, and posit positive feedback ("forcings") to make up the difference.

But a new post on Watts Up With That, here, shows just what level of forcing is required to achieve the massive temperature rises being prophecied. It's suggested that the forcing is 13x the size of the effect of CO2 alone. That's quite some forcing!

The graphs in this post demonstrate the basic point about energy absorption of CO2 (or of any other molecule). It's non-linear. Add a small amount and it has a large effect. Keep adding and the effect reduces until you reach a point where adding more has no effect. In other words, there is no more energy to be absorbed at the frequencies that CO2 absorbs it. Oddly, this doesn't often figure in discussions but it's well-known to climate scientists.

So I hope that this post on WUWT is of interest and helps clarify the terms of the discussion going forward. As one of the commenters says, it would be good to hear a response to the post from climate scientists so that we can understand their perspective on CO2 saturation. Let's hope it can happen before too long, because surely we can't go on in such a divided and uncooperative way. There's some real science to be done and some facts to be gleaned, if we can get rid of the politics and propaganda that passes for climate science at present.

A list of AGW "-gates" to cut out and keep

Just a short post to point to an article in the Orange County Register (what?) listing some of the "-gates" emerging from the AGW mess over the last few months. I'm not sure it's complete, but it's a useful aide memoire for the future.

The site is here: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/-234092--.html. Enjoy!

An illuminating interview on UK Channel 4 news

Tonight's C4 news -- often a good source of less-biased reporting than the BBC -- featured an interview with Lord Nigel Lawson and Prof Bob Watson from the UK Government (DEFRA's chief scientific advisor) who is also director of strategic development at the UEA (I think the interview will be available here for the next 7 days). This was after a report on Peter Liss who is standing in for Dr Jones at UEA and who, unsurprisingly, explained that "there is nothing to see here". They also covered "Chinagate" but unconvincingly.

Prof Watson of course stated that the UEA temperature record is consistent with the 2 US ones which are "completely independent" -- ha ha. That's an old line which surely he knew was incorrect? He then stated that "the science is absolutely solid" and that it is just necessary to explain it to us better -- groan. However, he did confirm that the last 10 years' temperature has been essentially flat, even though he claimed that sea levels have been rising (yet again: disproven, as Lord Lawson responded).

The illuminating part of the interview came from a question sent in by a viewer (about 15 minutes into the news broadcast). It asked for proof that the warming of 0.5 degC seen in the 80s and 90s was unequivocally caused by human activities.

Prof Watson responded that all natural sources of variation had been explored and discounted. He said, "We cannot show that it's due to any natural variability.... The only way we can explain that temperature increase is due [sic] to human activity."

In other words, let's assume for a minute that the temperature has increased by 1 degC. All known natural causes have caused, let's say, 0.5 degC of that increase. Therefore the only possible way that the 0.5 degC gap could be filled is the actions of humanity.

Now when you stop and think about that, you start to realise 2 things:

1. the whole basis of AGW is that scientists can't find any other explanation for filling the gap

2. for the AGW alarmists, it is essential that they maintain the world in a position of ignorance over what else might be filling the gap. If knowledge increases and other things are found that are filling the gap, then the role of humanity in temperature change is commensurately reduced.

Imagine your livelihood is funded by the world's belief in AGW. Imagine your professional credibility is based on the idea that the gap cannot be filled in any way other than by AGW. Are you going to be actively seeking other explanations for filling the gap? Instead, aren't you going to be actively resisting anyone and anything that might be able to find things that fill it?

Doesn't that explain, more than anything else, the behaviour that has been uncovered in the Climategate emails and manifest in the subsequent strident protests of innocence from scientists and politicians?

It's not that they can prove AGW. It's simply that it was the best explanation that they had at the time. But now the time's moved on. They no doubt wish it hadn't -- they'd rather nobody found anything that would reduce the gap and therefore reduce their credibility. But we're seeing other things come along, such as the effect of water vapour in the high atmosphere that has been the cause of 1/3 of the global warming. How would you feel if scientists were chipping away at your beloved gap -- the gap that for you can and must only be filled by AGW?

But the gap should be a target for keen research. Anything we can do to show that other things fill the gap will save the world billions of dollars that will be spent attempting to control CO2 emissions. It's in all our interests to see that money spent instead on pressing issues such as malaria eradication and clean water.

The current state of "climate science" is the result of vested interests needing to keep the world believing that there is nothing to fill the gap except our wicked CO2 emissions. Once people start to realise that there is no proof for AGW, and that it's only based on the absence of anything else scientists could think of at the time, then surely the worm really will start to turn.

So I thank the viewer who sent in the question, and Prof Watson who answered it so clearly and self-incriminatingly. I wonder whether he meant to be quite so open as to admit his beliefs were built on nothing more than ignorance?

The rush to find more IPCC errors

Following on from my post of earlier this morning, here's another fascinating MSM article from the Wall St Journal. Do read it.

This one focuses on the way that IPCC4 highlighted the possibility of reduced water availability for billions of people without also mentioning that AGW would also increase availability for billions more. The net change could actually be positive, according to the paper that the IPCC quoted, but it only quoted the negative findings.

Worse than that, it missed out the paper's statements that most of the reduction in water availability would actually be caused by factors other than AGW, incuding population growth.

Apparently, the reason that the full, balanced picture was not presented was due to lack of space. This, in a document that runs to almost 3000 pages!

What we seem to be seeing now is that the MSM, having finally woken up to having been duped, is now rushing to find as many holes as possible in the AGW edifice. While this is good, the sad thing is that this is what they should have been doing from the start. Journalists have taken what they've been fed by AGW zealots as gospel and not done the careful investigative work on it that they should have -- that they're paid to.

Of course this is not specific to AGW. Few articles now are much more than regurgitated press releases. But AGW is more important than that and it deserves journalists who can bring their scientific knowledge to bear on this subject. What? They're not even scientists? Then why are they writing on scientific subjects as if they know what they're talking about? Why not just start every article with inverted commas to show that they're simply quoting the press release? That way, it's clear to their readers that they're not adding any value.

So perhaps at last we're seeing some investigative journalism taking place. It's finally acceptable to be a skeptic again. Science may finally be reinstated as the basis of AGW. It's going to be a very interesting year!

Climategate: something very strange is happening

Today, Watt's Up With That has a fascinating post on articles in the Guardian and the Independent.

These describe work that Dr Jones (ex-head of CRU at UEA) did with a Chinese scientist that "proved" that there was no UHI effect affecting surface temperature records.

UHI? Urban Heat Island. The fact that it's warmer in cities than in the country, especially at night. Much has been said in the past about GW actually being more about warmer night temperatures than day temperatures increasing, so clearly UHI is of importance.

So Dr Jones "proved" that UHI was a minor amount based on the temperature records in cities in China -- where there was massive creeping urbanisation that would allow us to see UHI effects over a shortish period.

Even at the time, people didn't believe him. But as usual, he got support from "the usual suspects" and was exonerated. Turns out, though, that he had very poor quality data. He claimed that he knew that very few of the 80-odd monitoring stations had been moved during the period of his data, but this turned out not to be true. In fact, it seems that many of them had been moved, and some by large distances (41km in one case, apparently). Therefore, the reliability of the record was low and the conclusions potentially flawed.

Interestingly enough, the story has a further twist. According to WUWT, Dr Jones published another paper in 2007 that came up with the opposite answer to his earlier one. Not surprisingly, it was ignored by the AGW camp. This one showed that the contribution of UHI to the rising global temperature record -- that is, the "anomaly" that "proves" AGW to be true -- is "about 0.1 degC per decade".

Of course, Dr Jones' paper doesn't hype this up. In fact, it tries to downplay the figure by comparing it to the AGW anomaly of "0.81 degC over the period 1951-2004". Take a look at those 2 figures and you're left to think, "0.1, oh, that's just a small percentage of the total 0.81".

But take another look. The period Dr Jones highlights is 53 years. 0.1 degC per decade is 0.53 degC over 53 years. So according to Dr Jones' paper, 0.53 degC out of 0.81 degC of all the warming seen in the period is directly attributable to UHI effects.

Don't rush on. Stop and think.

There are huge issues with the surface temperature record. Thermometers are generally read to an accuracy of 1 degC or 1 degF. Once a day the max and min temperatures are recorded. These are then averaged over a month, with decimal places added to the numbers (note Dr Jones' statement of "0.81" when you can't read a thermometer to even 1 decimal place!) and the main global temperature records (GISS, UEA, etc) use them to generate highly massaged trends. Not just that, but early temperatures are reduced by large amounts (without explanation) to make current temperatures look worse. The net result according to Dr Jones is a 0.81 degC rise in global temperature over a period of 53 years.

Even if we accept his statement of 0.81 degC as being correct -- and I think there's huge evidence to show it's not -- we can still see that 2/3 of the global temperature rise is attributable to the UHI effect.

Where does that leave AGW?

It may be that Dr Jones' 2007 paper on the UHI effect is overstated. He's been wrong before, after all. But it's also worth remembering that the whole AGW "signal" in the temperature record is highly suspect, based as it is on significant and repeated manipulations of the record to make current temperatures look higher by reducing earlier ones.

So let's not allow ourselves to be bullied any more into thinking that "the science is settled". It's not. It never was. Even in the last few days, for example, we've seen that changes in the amount of water vapour high in the atmosphere has been responsible for 1/3 of all global warming in the last 10 years. Add that to the UHI figure and that's got the whole lot covered! Of course all these papers -- and the newspaper articles -- are careful to state that they're not doubting AGW of course. How could they? The authors depend on AGW for their credibility and their liveihoods.

But there's an increasing sense of "cognitive dissonance". Our Climate Secretary Mr Miliband last weekend made a strident effort to show his support for the effects of AGW, even as the evidence of his errors figuratively piled up in the background. It's like Comical Ali speaking during the Iraq invasion: while the bombs were going off behind him he continued to state that there was "nothing to see here". That feels like the situation now with AGW. Our very own Comical Ali, Mr Miliband, needs only to turn around to see what's happening behind him. I wonder when he will?

"Floodgate" time in climate science

If you're at all interested in the debates now raging across the AGW world. then you'll know that there's huge activity and one "-gate" after another. Some have suggested we call this "floodgate", which seems strangely appropriate given that one of the fear-inducing warnings of the warmists is massive sea level rises.

Whatever we call it, we're in uncharted territory here. We're seeing the piece-by-piece discrediting of the 4th IPCC report, aka IPCC4. While this is good, I've always been concerned about what might happen when the general population realises that their governments have been hoodwinking them for years. When they realise that the excuse for new taxes, higher taxes, and reduced freedoms is a fraud.

Well of course at present we're not seeing governments admit their errors. There's a huge amount of spin being deployed to try to get people to believe that it's business as usual for AGW. But below the surface, in the internet if not the MSM (and certainly never the BBC!), the truth is out.

One thing's for certain, the AGW debate is not closed and the next few months and years are going to be very interesting!

Some places to track the debates:

1. http://bishophill.squarespace.com/. Real name Andrew Montford, he has now published a book about Climategate called "The Hockey Stick Illusion" that should be well worth a read. His blog is always crisply written and incisive. Even other skeptics go to his blog to get the most well-written summaries of the current state of play

2. http://climateaudit.org/. Never overlook this one. Steve McIntyre is one of the leading skeptics and always worth a read

3. http://wattsupwiththat.com/. Anthony Watts and Steve together deliver all that we need to track what's happening, but sometimes with less clarity than we get from Bishop Hill. I guess it's down to writing in the heat of the moment and with minds full of their latest findings!

4. http://chiefio.wordpress.com/. E M Smith, aka Chiefio, is a polymath who blogs on all sorts of things. His AGW theme is worth monitoring. If you're interested in investing in the stock market he gives the benefits of his experience on this too!

5. http://www.climategate.com/. This is one that's arisen recently. It pulls information from many sources, so is not original research like ClimateAudit or WattsUpWithThat but worth monitoring

6. http://climatedebatedaily.com/. Finally, don't forget the place where you can go to get both pro and anti views displayed together. It's very interesting to note the increasing hysteria of the pro-AGW articles.

Google Chrome and Firefox

I've been using Chrome for several months now, and I thought I'd write down a few comparisons with Firefox which was my previous browser. I'd be interested in others' views too!

What's good about Firefox

1. It's not Microsoft Internet Explorer. That's a great start!
2. It's quicker than IE
3. I love the ability to add plug-ins. I really like Cooliris, allowing you to preview pages before you decide whether to go to them or not. Also how it displays pictures in Google Image results just by hovering over them. Brilliant!
4. Tabbed browsing. I almost forgot. Do you remember life before Firefox introduced this? A million separate IE instances along your taskbar and unable to find the one you wanted?!
5. Self-updating. So useful to know you've always got the latest version
6. It saves your open pages and returns to them when you restart
7. Print preview that allows you to scale the output. Brilliant when you're printing e-tickets that would otherwise be 97 pages long :)

What's not so good about Firefox

1. If you leave it running for several days, it seems to have memory leaks that end up consuming 1GB of your RAM. Not so nice
2. See the "good about Chrome" section below...

What's good about Chrome

1. Seems a bit quicker than Firefox
2. Opening a new tab keeps it next to the one you opened it from rather than putting it at the end of the row
3. Opening a new tab doesn't automatically switch to it. I didn't like this at first but now I'm used to opening several links from a page and then switching to them when I'm ready
4. The address bar doubles as google search. I didn't like this at first but now it's very nice
5. Incognito!

What's not so good about Chrome

1. It also seems to have memory leaks
2. Sometimes it seems to eat up my CPU. Most frequently this is because I have an eBay summary page open but sometimes it's other pages. I hate this bug!
3. Sometimes I type in a new URL and Chrome won't go to it. It just ignores it. I have to open a new tab instead. I hate this bug too!
4. I have to drag the star to save the page as a favourite, rather than the tab. I wish it behaved the same as Firefox
5. I wish it supported Cooliris
6. Useless print support. This is a basic oversight that really should be fixed
7. Doesn't update itself.

So my conclusions are:

1. Forget IE
2. Use Firefox as a minimum
3. Try Chrome. You'll probably like it after a short time
4. Chrome's far from perfect yet. The memory leaks and CPU-hogging are really basic things that should be fixed, similarly the print capabilities of Firefox should be included quickly
5. I wish Chrome supported plug-ins
6. I'll continue to use Chrome but yearn for the stability that Firefox now has.

Latest post-climategate revelations: 6 examples of the truth coming out

Isn't it interesting that climategate has been a watershed in climate debate? In fact, we're now having some whereas before we weren't. Ignoring Gordon Brown's "flat earth" statement over the weekend, we're actually now seeing that there are 2 sides to the climate argument instead of just one. And there have been so many highlights that I've not been able to keep up.

But I have noticed these, which I think are getting to the heart of the matter -- whether the temperature record itself is dependable.

1. Antarctica temperature figures

This link shows how the 26 of the 27 weather stations in Antarctica are ignored when making up the global temperature dataset. And, not entirely surprisingly, the one weather station that is used is the one showing the highest rise in temperature! Anthony Watts expands the linked study here with photographs showing the location of the weather station. Commenters indicate that the location has changed dramatically over the last 40 years. For one thing, a runway has been cleared out of the snow to support flights not just for scientists visiting this British Antarctic Survey base but also the tourist trade. The ground used to be be ice and snow, but is now black volcanic lava. So it's hardly surprising that this location has seen dramatic rises in temperature -- people, planes, change of ground surface -- and very sad that this is the temperature record chosen by "climate scientists" to represent the temperature of the whole Antarctic continent!

2. Daily Mail article on "hiding the decline"

The article here shows how the climategate issues are now finally reaching the MSM. The Mail can be sensationalist, but the analysis here is carefully done. The "trick" to "hide the decline" was not to hide the decline in actual temperature, but the decline in temperature showed by one of the temperature proxies (tree ring widths). The issue: if the proxy is not tracking actual temperature now, how can it be trusted to be a proxy for temperatures of 1000+ years ago? So the "decline" was hidden by simply removing the part of the graph that declined, and hiding the end of the graph line by covering it in other lines that went in the preferred direction. There are several other points made in the article about the way in which older temperatures are "adjusted" by "climate scientists" -- downwards of course -- to make recent temperatures appear relatively warmer....

3. Adjustments to older temperature data exposed

This is a blog I've not followed before, but judging from this post it's worth keeping track of. Take a look here to see what I mean. This guy has taken data from a couple of files that were released from the CRU to compare raw and "adjusted" data for 2 countries where raw data was made available (you may remember that Prof Phil Jones said they had deleted all raw data, but obviously not!). This work shows that there is no warming visible in Bolivia or Argentina.

4. The snows of Kilimanjaro

I've seen this mountain. It's beautiful. It's also true that it has less snow on it than it used to, according to old photographs. Al Gore has previously used this fact to prove that global warming is affecting the climate in Africa. Now a Dutch scientist has shown that this is not the case. In fact, there is a 11,500-year cycle of wet and dry periods. During the last wet period a lot of snow was deposited. Subsequently, it has disappeared in the dry period which is apparently coming to an end. Others have also shown that deforestation around the mountain has affected the microclimate, further reducing precipitation and therefore snow. The bottom line: reducing snow on Kilimanjaro are not proof of AGW

5. Hockey stick -- latest disproof

The Mann Hockey stick graph has been disproven many times, but here is an article that provides some further disproof. To make the point, the author only uses peer-reviewed figures -- something that the AGW "Team" always throw in the face of those who wish to argue against them. Again, this sort of disproof just makes AGW supporters look silly

6. Temperature adjustments in Australia

Another excellent post by Anthony Watts. Here he asks very penetrating questions about how temperature records are manipulated by "climate scientists". Darwin airport had 5 independent temperature records. They all generally validated each other -- they showed that they were broadly correct. And they showed little if no warming -- possibly even cooling. But when it came to including Darwin airport into the pantheon of approved records, 2 of these were dropped, the other 3 were averaged together and then "adjusted" (with reference to what?) and the result was that they were used to show massive warming!

This is all very interesting, but what does it show? It shows that the validity of the data is now being questioned more than ever before. All the manipulations and adjustments performed by CRU, GISS, etc are now being opening questioned in a way that only a few people were doing previously. And as more questions are asked, more holes are being found. If temperatures are not increasing, then global warming isn't happening. It's quite simple!

We will see how the "climate scientists" respond to these searching questions. For now, I don't see strong responses. I think it will be necessary for them to reveal their raw data and explain rationally what they did to change flat trends into increasing trends. We're waiting to understand why we should believe their figures rather than the raw data.

I think it's very significant that the AGW people opened up a new front this weekend: acidification of the oceans. We're told that this is "worse than AGW". I think this is an example of the AGW people "moving on". Little research has been done on this to date, but that which has seems to indicate a mixed picture in terms of impact on sea creatures. It's certainly worth investigating further, but let's not create another bandwagon this time -- let's approach it scientifically rather than militantly for once!

SMS for Life: press release now available

The official press release for the project I'm running in Tanzania, SMS for Life, has now gone live. The link is above, and here.

I've had a couple of interviews already. I think it will go into a lot of news outlets in Africa but hopefully globally as well. Although we can't provide hard number on "number of lives saved" -- we're not counting, even if we could -- the story is strong and demonstrates a real impact.

Climategate and Sean's response to Prof James McCarthy

There's a really good post at Watts Up With That today, here.

A Harvard professor, James McCarthy, who used to be part of the IPCC, has written a letter in defence of AGW scientists. A climate scientist "Sean" has published a response. It's an amazing perspective from the "inside" of the AGW camp.

He says things like:

• "We have known for years that the Mann hockey stick model was wrong, and we know why it was wrong"
• "We have known for years that the Medieval Warm period occurred, where the temperatures were higher than they are now"
• "...it was known that the IPCC people were trying to fudge the data to get rid of the MWP..."
• "We now know that the models on which the IPCC alarms are based [d]o not do clouds, they do not do the biosphere, they do not explain the Pliocene warming, and they have never predicted anything, ever, correctly."
• "...we have known for years that CO2 increases have never in the past 300,000 years caused temperature rise (CO2 rise trails temperature increase). IPCC scientists know this too..."
• "We have also known for years that the alleged one degree temperature rise from 1880 vanishes if sites exposed to urban heat islands are not considered."
• "We have long known that Jones’s paper dismissing this explanation (Jones, et al. 1990. Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature 347 169- 172) is wrong and potentially fraudulent..."
• "Everyone except Briffa knows that the Briffa conclusions are wrong, and why they are wrong..."
• "All of this was known before Climategate. What was not known until now was the extent to which Jones and Mann were simply deceiving themselves (which happens often in science) or fraudently attempting to deceive others"
• "But the computer code is transparently fraudulent. Here, one finds matrices that add unexplained numbers to recent temperatures and subtract them from older temperatures (these numbers are hard-programmed in), splining observational data to model data, and other smoking guns, all showing that they were doing what was necessary to get the answers that the IPCC wanted, not the answers that the data held. They knew what they were doing, and why they were doing it."

Remember, this is from an AGW insider. It's not a skeptic or "denier" speaking. Do read all of what he says. It's amazing what Climategate is now starting to expose!